INDIA’S INTERNAL SECURITY DYNAMICS
BY
BRIG (RETD) RAHUL K BHONSLE
SECURITY-RISKS.COM
“Come and gather together, o my brothers, dispel your dilemma and give yourself to the task at hand”
Guru Granth Sahib
Covers in a 5000 plus word report
The North East Challenge
Nagaland
Manipur
Tripura
Assam
Bodo
Jammu and Kashmir
NAXALISM
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Saturday, May 19, 2007
SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS MAY 2007
SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS : MAY 2007 (Link Name)
(Material on opening of the link)
For a comprehensive coverage of events in South Asia in April 2007 and trends in May 2007 to include the following main issues:-
International Events Impacting South Asian Security
China - Plus 11 % Surging Ahead Relentlessly
14th SAARC Summit : Two Steps Forward
Afghanistan : Spring Offensive Underway
Bangladesh : Minus Two Politics Backfires?
Bhutan : Rehearsing Democracy
Nepal : Agitation Politics Continues
Pakistan : In the Grip of a Thousand Mutinies
Sri Lanka : Terror from the Air
India – Makings of a Regional Power
Indian Foreign Policy Initiatives and Dialogues
The 123 Agreement and Look East Policy
Indian Strategic Defence Capability
Agni III, PSLV and Anti Missile Tests
Indian Army News and Land Forces Acquisitions
Ex Ashwamedh, Network Centric Warfare and Commanders Conference
Indian Navy News and Maritime Acquisitions
Naval Diplomacy, TSN and 40 new ships in the offing
Indian Air Force News and Aero Space Acquisitions
126 Combat fighters RFP and the LCA
Kashmir Towards a Hot and Cold Summer
Outsourced Terrorism, Safe Passage and Demilitarization
Terrorism, Communalism and Law and Order
Terrorists in New Delhi and Osama CDs in Bihar
The North East : Flip Flop over ULFA
Army suppresses ULFA as State government talks peace
Naxal : Reopen Front in Bihar
Increased activities in Bihar and perils of policing in Chattisgarh
PLUS OVERVIEW OF TERRORISM IN SOUTH ASIA 2006
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SCENARIOS IN BANGLADESH
A discussion of Scenarios in Bangladesh – From stability to status quo to chaos. A discussion of the political and other measures which can contribute to peace and stability? Is stability a viable proposition? What are the recommendations for the Bangla Government, international community and India to contribute to this scenario?
A Power Point Presentation by Rahul K Bhonsle – South Asia’s foremost expert on strategic risk.http://www.security-risks.com/bangla_scenario.asp
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A Power Point Presentation by Rahul K Bhonsle – South Asia’s foremost expert on strategic risk.http://www.security-risks.com/bangla_scenario.asp
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Operational Art In Low Internsity Conflict Operations
The relevance and applicability of Operational Art in the Low Intensity Conflict Scenario – Indian Context. Includes salient examples of application. Answers the very critical question of applicability of operational art in low intensity conflict operations. http://www.security-risks.com/operation_art.asp
A Power Point Presentation by Rahul K Bhonsle – South Asia’s foremost expert on low intensity conflict.Order at $ 25 or Rs 1000/-. Send E Mail. orders@security-risks.com.
A Power Point Presentation by Rahul K Bhonsle – South Asia’s foremost expert on low intensity conflict.Order at $ 25 or Rs 1000/-. Send E Mail. orders@security-risks.com.
SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS APRIL 2007
The month of April was a period of reconciliation with South Asian leadership congregating for the 14th SAARC Summit in New Delhi. SAARC compared to other regional groupings as the European Union (EU) or ASEAN which have stabilized is only now showing signs of greater harmony. SAFTA will be the main driver as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are already benefiting from opening up trade with India. Afghanistan saw resurgence of violence as the Taliban spring offensive is underway. NATO forces have pre-empted the Taliban in many sectors, but the guerrilla fighters will continue to foray in varied areas posing challenges, relying on a combination of kidnapping, suicide attacks and guerrilla strikes particularly on Afghan police and army personnel to undermine their morale and force hands of vacillating government’s to leave the country. Some improvement in Pakistan – Afghanistan relations is anticipated with Turkey brokering a declaration in Ankara at the end of the month. In Pakistan the threat of militancy and suicide terrorism came to the fore with a rally addressed by the Interior Minister struck by a suicide bomber in the NWFP killing over 30 people. Agitations of two hues were evident in the country. On one hand was the liberal lobby of lawyers and civil rights activists who protested sacking of Chief Justice of the country, while rabid fundamentalists of Lal Masjid in Islamabad took to the streets to impose strict code of conduct.
Nepal was caught in a welter of bandhs and agitations with the Maoists wanting immediate declaration of the state as a republic, while other groups such as the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum called for greater autonomy, federalism and equal representation. The Government has successfully handled the crisis so far and is expected to prevail. In Bangladesh, the Caretaker Administration’s Minus Two politics exemplifying exile of two former Prime Minister’s, Begum Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina seems to have back fired, with supporters of the leaders succeeding to force the government to repeal its obliquely worded orders exiling the leaders. A fringe group struck in three places in the country, Dacca, Chittagong and Sylhet with low intensity bombs on 1 May, which caused little damage. Hectic political and administrative confabulations are going on in the country, as the Caretaker Administration is burdened with the challenge of restructuring governance as well as polity. In Sri Lanka the LTTE sprung a surprise launching two air attacks in Jaffna and Colombo during the month. The last one was timed with the finals of the cricket world cup wherein Sri Lanka were playing Australia. Shutting off power due to the air raid, was expected to create panic but the stolid citizens of Colombo are probably inured to such incidents by now.
India saw successful test of the IRBM, Agni III followed by commercial launch of satellite by the ISRO which made up for past failures. The Indo US Nuclear Deal seems to be stuck in a groove with both sides attempting to iron out differences. The Sino Indian border talks also failed to enthuse the negotiators despite the salubrious environs of Coonor. In Kashmir, demilitarization was the buzz, but the reality of terrorist violence has cooled enthusiasm at present. On the other hand a large number of youth on both sides of the LOC are perhaps awaiting a promised safe passage. Assam saw the ULFA on the defensive with supply lines having choked off from Myanmar, the group is under pressure. The State government played flip flop proposing talks just when the army was set to break the back of the militants. The Naxals continued their periodic rampage in Chattisgarh as the state is undergoing an acute crisis of efficient policing. Revival of the movement in Bihar is also evident.
In the international arena, Iraq continued to conflagrate along with Somalia in the Horn of Africa, while an Al Qaeda affiliate launched a terrorist attack on HQs of the prime minister of Algeria in North Africa. In Darfur, Sudan there are hopes of peace while the need for stability is leading the Pentagon to lay out plans for an Africa Command. The US State Department report on terrorism for 2006 denoted a rise in both the number of incidents as well as casualties across the globe, a reminder that there is a long haul ahead. The Al Qaeda apparently is not only surviving but also extending influence in newer parts of the World including North Africa.
The summer season in the Northern Hemisphere is regarded as ideal for military campaigns. The summer of 2007 does not portend to be any different as security forces are likely to remain preoccupied to keep peace and amity across much of the developing World and particularly in South Asia.
For a complete review of Security in South Asia go to http://www.security-risks.com. For a research report on any subject in South Asia place order at orders@security-risks.com or rkbhonsle@security-risks.com
Nepal was caught in a welter of bandhs and agitations with the Maoists wanting immediate declaration of the state as a republic, while other groups such as the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum called for greater autonomy, federalism and equal representation. The Government has successfully handled the crisis so far and is expected to prevail. In Bangladesh, the Caretaker Administration’s Minus Two politics exemplifying exile of two former Prime Minister’s, Begum Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina seems to have back fired, with supporters of the leaders succeeding to force the government to repeal its obliquely worded orders exiling the leaders. A fringe group struck in three places in the country, Dacca, Chittagong and Sylhet with low intensity bombs on 1 May, which caused little damage. Hectic political and administrative confabulations are going on in the country, as the Caretaker Administration is burdened with the challenge of restructuring governance as well as polity. In Sri Lanka the LTTE sprung a surprise launching two air attacks in Jaffna and Colombo during the month. The last one was timed with the finals of the cricket world cup wherein Sri Lanka were playing Australia. Shutting off power due to the air raid, was expected to create panic but the stolid citizens of Colombo are probably inured to such incidents by now.
India saw successful test of the IRBM, Agni III followed by commercial launch of satellite by the ISRO which made up for past failures. The Indo US Nuclear Deal seems to be stuck in a groove with both sides attempting to iron out differences. The Sino Indian border talks also failed to enthuse the negotiators despite the salubrious environs of Coonor. In Kashmir, demilitarization was the buzz, but the reality of terrorist violence has cooled enthusiasm at present. On the other hand a large number of youth on both sides of the LOC are perhaps awaiting a promised safe passage. Assam saw the ULFA on the defensive with supply lines having choked off from Myanmar, the group is under pressure. The State government played flip flop proposing talks just when the army was set to break the back of the militants. The Naxals continued their periodic rampage in Chattisgarh as the state is undergoing an acute crisis of efficient policing. Revival of the movement in Bihar is also evident.
In the international arena, Iraq continued to conflagrate along with Somalia in the Horn of Africa, while an Al Qaeda affiliate launched a terrorist attack on HQs of the prime minister of Algeria in North Africa. In Darfur, Sudan there are hopes of peace while the need for stability is leading the Pentagon to lay out plans for an Africa Command. The US State Department report on terrorism for 2006 denoted a rise in both the number of incidents as well as casualties across the globe, a reminder that there is a long haul ahead. The Al Qaeda apparently is not only surviving but also extending influence in newer parts of the World including North Africa.
The summer season in the Northern Hemisphere is regarded as ideal for military campaigns. The summer of 2007 does not portend to be any different as security forces are likely to remain preoccupied to keep peace and amity across much of the developing World and particularly in South Asia.
For a complete review of Security in South Asia go to http://www.security-risks.com. For a research report on any subject in South Asia place order at orders@security-risks.com or rkbhonsle@security-risks.com
SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS MARCH 2007
The ides of March crossed many areas of South Asia during the month under review. Sri Lanka continued to be marred by fratricidal violence as Government forces wage a relentless war of attrition in the East while the LTTE has returned with vengeance unveiling a new weapon in its armoury, an Air Wing. Peace is many months away as over 150,000 people are rendered homeless in Eastern Sri Lanka and the fate of millions hangs in balance as the campaign progresses northwards. A fresh, ear to the ground perspective is provided by Col (Retd) R Hariharan writing on trends in the Island. The emergency clamp down in Bangladesh was extended to bring over 160 political and other prominent personalities to book, including Mr Tarique Rehman, son of former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia. The hanging of terrorists accused of the 2005 blasts including Bangla Bhai should send a clear signal of resolve of the Caretaker Administration to inimical elements in the state. Indo Bangla relations are already looking up. The possible scenarios in Bangladesh have been covered in detail in this issue.
After much political brinkmanship, the grand old man of Nepal, Mr G P Koirala took oath as Prime Minister as the Interim Government took office with six ministers from the Maoist fold in tow. There is much work cut out ahead as elections have been scheduled in June, merely three months away, as the Madhesi agitation rocks the Terai and economy moves in jerks, the perils of power should be soon evident to the new government. Bhutan also moved towards democracy after two political parties were formed and a new Indo Bhutan treaty meeting Thimpu's aspirations came into effect.
Pakistan remained on the brinks of militancy as well as political crisis throughout the month. Removal of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court on charges of corruption and nepotism led to an uproar in the judiciary as well as the media. The ham handed approach of the state in dealing with the crisis saw police charging into offices of Geo TV, Pakistan’s symbol of media freedom. A major confrontation was avoided by personal apology by President Musharraf and some deft political manoeuvring as the Government rode out the crisis. The Western FATA area witnessed a major clash between Uzbek militias linked to Al Qaeda and tribal fighters in South Waziristan as the government once again made a peace deal with the tribal in Bajaur agency. Pakistan’s strategy of alternating between peace and controlled operations receives extensive coverage in this issue. Afghanistan on the other hand was relatively calm due to a combination of factors of intense operations by NATO forces, Taliban’s preoccupation in FATA and the lucrative poppy season. Suicide terror, kidnapping and extortion are however assuming alarming proportions.
India too saw a spurt of violence in Naxal affected states of Chattisgarh and Jharkhand as a key Member of Parliament was shot dead by the Maoists and over 55 policemen killed in a midnight attack by a large group of militants in Rani Bodli. Bihar too saw return of the Maoists after a long time, denoting unfolding of the Maoist strategy outlined in the 9th Congress. In the North East, the ULFA continued its battle for political and military relevance in Assam. The NSCN factions were involved in internecine clashes while Manipur settled down after a hectic period of electioneering. The DRDO came for special scrutiny during the month and a detailed review has been undertaken while India’s defence preparedness in other spheres continues apace. The SAARC summit in New Delhi will be in focus on 3 and 4 April with terrorism forming a key part of the agenda
China’s Prime Minister denoted a new vision extending over 100 years while extensive plans for development of strategic technologies and new confidence in the PLA Navy indicated the mood of the nation. The United States continued to suffer from the high wages of conflict in Iraq as surge operations have yet to demonstrate results while Congress is pressuring the Administration to fix a withdrawal date in 2008. Britain felt the heat of stand off with Iran as 15 sailors were apprehended by the Revolutionary Guard in disputed waters of the Shaat el Arab. Somalia saw return to guerrilla warfare even as African Union troops were being deployed to take control from Ethiopian forces. Japan inked a new agreement of security cooperation with Australia as both nations looked beyond bitter memories of the Second World War. Much needs to be done in April, to make the World and particularly South Asia a safer place.
For a complete view of South Asia Security Trends visit web site www.security-risks.com. Order reports on any security subjects listed on the web at orders@security-risks.com or rkbhonsle@gmail.com .
http://www.security-trends.com
After much political brinkmanship, the grand old man of Nepal, Mr G P Koirala took oath as Prime Minister as the Interim Government took office with six ministers from the Maoist fold in tow. There is much work cut out ahead as elections have been scheduled in June, merely three months away, as the Madhesi agitation rocks the Terai and economy moves in jerks, the perils of power should be soon evident to the new government. Bhutan also moved towards democracy after two political parties were formed and a new Indo Bhutan treaty meeting Thimpu's aspirations came into effect.
Pakistan remained on the brinks of militancy as well as political crisis throughout the month. Removal of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court on charges of corruption and nepotism led to an uproar in the judiciary as well as the media. The ham handed approach of the state in dealing with the crisis saw police charging into offices of Geo TV, Pakistan’s symbol of media freedom. A major confrontation was avoided by personal apology by President Musharraf and some deft political manoeuvring as the Government rode out the crisis. The Western FATA area witnessed a major clash between Uzbek militias linked to Al Qaeda and tribal fighters in South Waziristan as the government once again made a peace deal with the tribal in Bajaur agency. Pakistan’s strategy of alternating between peace and controlled operations receives extensive coverage in this issue. Afghanistan on the other hand was relatively calm due to a combination of factors of intense operations by NATO forces, Taliban’s preoccupation in FATA and the lucrative poppy season. Suicide terror, kidnapping and extortion are however assuming alarming proportions.
India too saw a spurt of violence in Naxal affected states of Chattisgarh and Jharkhand as a key Member of Parliament was shot dead by the Maoists and over 55 policemen killed in a midnight attack by a large group of militants in Rani Bodli. Bihar too saw return of the Maoists after a long time, denoting unfolding of the Maoist strategy outlined in the 9th Congress. In the North East, the ULFA continued its battle for political and military relevance in Assam. The NSCN factions were involved in internecine clashes while Manipur settled down after a hectic period of electioneering. The DRDO came for special scrutiny during the month and a detailed review has been undertaken while India’s defence preparedness in other spheres continues apace. The SAARC summit in New Delhi will be in focus on 3 and 4 April with terrorism forming a key part of the agenda
China’s Prime Minister denoted a new vision extending over 100 years while extensive plans for development of strategic technologies and new confidence in the PLA Navy indicated the mood of the nation. The United States continued to suffer from the high wages of conflict in Iraq as surge operations have yet to demonstrate results while Congress is pressuring the Administration to fix a withdrawal date in 2008. Britain felt the heat of stand off with Iran as 15 sailors were apprehended by the Revolutionary Guard in disputed waters of the Shaat el Arab. Somalia saw return to guerrilla warfare even as African Union troops were being deployed to take control from Ethiopian forces. Japan inked a new agreement of security cooperation with Australia as both nations looked beyond bitter memories of the Second World War. Much needs to be done in April, to make the World and particularly South Asia a safer place.
For a complete view of South Asia Security Trends visit web site www.security-risks.com. Order reports on any security subjects listed on the web at orders@security-risks.com or rkbhonsle@gmail.com .
http://www.security-trends.com
South Asia Security Trends February 2007
Security in South Asia was in focus during February 2007. The anticipated spring offensive of the Taliban in Afghanistan seems to have virtually commenced with three district centres secured by the rebels during the month. These appear to be opening moves in what is expected to be a bloody summer. Neighbouring Pakistan which many consider to be the key to control Taliban saw three suicide bomb attacks one of which in a court room in Quetta killed 17 including a sitting judge. There was no respite to President Musharraf as Western accusations of support to Taliban were followed up by visits of US Vice President Dick Cheney and the British foreign secretary Margaret Beckett seeking greater Pakistani indulgence in controlling the Taliban. Islamabad’s predicament can be best explained by the phrase, “between the devil and the deep sea”. Terror also threatened to mar Indo Pakistan dialogue with a bomb attack on the Samjhauta Express which connects the two countries killing 68 persons mostly Pakistanis. Good sense prevailed and Indo Pakistani authorities concluded the all important visit of foreign minister Kasuri to New Delhi reaffirming their commitment to peace.
This was a good sign for Kashmir, where political realignment sees the moderate faction of Hurriyat Conference increasingly gaining prominence. Indo Bhutan relations received a new fillip with inking of new Friendship Treaty providing greater latitude to Thimpu in conducting foreign relations. Bangladesh saw a crack down on key functionaries of political parties on charges of corruption and anti social activities as the Caretaker government prepared to place order before democratic rights and sought to clean up polity. Elections appear to be postponed indefinitely. Indo Bangla relations improved considerably with Indian company Bharat Heavy Electrical Ltd awarded key power contract by Dacca after a long time. Myanmar concluded a pact with a faction of the Kachin rebels while the NSCN (Khaplang) camp at Sagaing was raided by the Myanmarese Army during the month. Sri Lanka saw political turbulence as three members of parliament challenged the authority of the President after redistribution of portfolios to dissidents from the opposition. The Cease Fire Agreement is now in a jeopardy with both LTTE and the Sri Lankan government virtually withdrawing their commitment after 5 years of chequered history.
Within India, elections to three states of Punjab, Uttarakhand and Manipur saw a shift in power from the ruling Congress Party to the opposition in two states less Manipur, while announcement of elections to the largest state, Uttar Pradesh in April and May increased the political tempo considerably. The terror attack on Samjhauta Express was a grim reminder of continued vulnerability of the country’s transportation network. Measures for coastal security were also enhanced with an LTTE boat laden with explosives impounded in Indian waters in the Palk straits. Naxal continued their IED operations in Chattisgarh. A strategy session of the high command is said to have been held during the month indicating extension of the struggle to other areas of the country. Elections in Manipur were peaceful but for a strike on a police patrol killing 15 in a deliberate ambush by the militants.
The international focus was on North Korea which finally agreed to wind up the nuclear weapons program after successful six nation talks. Iran however remained recalcitrant. The US demonstrated greater flexibility by accepting a role for Iran and Syria in resolution of the Iraq imbroglio. The situation in Iraq showed signs of marginal improvement due to renewed drive by American and Iraqi forces. Sustained pressure for over three to six months alone will show perceptible results as some reports indicated use of chlorine gas by Iraqi insurgents. Iran suffered a major terrorist attack by Sunni terrorist group, Jumdullah on the Western township of Zahedan, resulting in 17 casualties. The insurgency in southern Thailand showed an upsurge with serial attacks rocking over 45 places during the month, a grim cue to the leadership now comprising mostly of former and serving military brass.
The month of March presages more violence in Afghanistan, Iraq and other parts where militancy is proliferating including in Sri Lanka. The looming clouds of US strikes on Iran however seem to have receded giving some hope for peace.
For a complete review of the Security Trends in South Asia for all months so far, please go to www.security-risks.com
This was a good sign for Kashmir, where political realignment sees the moderate faction of Hurriyat Conference increasingly gaining prominence. Indo Bhutan relations received a new fillip with inking of new Friendship Treaty providing greater latitude to Thimpu in conducting foreign relations. Bangladesh saw a crack down on key functionaries of political parties on charges of corruption and anti social activities as the Caretaker government prepared to place order before democratic rights and sought to clean up polity. Elections appear to be postponed indefinitely. Indo Bangla relations improved considerably with Indian company Bharat Heavy Electrical Ltd awarded key power contract by Dacca after a long time. Myanmar concluded a pact with a faction of the Kachin rebels while the NSCN (Khaplang) camp at Sagaing was raided by the Myanmarese Army during the month. Sri Lanka saw political turbulence as three members of parliament challenged the authority of the President after redistribution of portfolios to dissidents from the opposition. The Cease Fire Agreement is now in a jeopardy with both LTTE and the Sri Lankan government virtually withdrawing their commitment after 5 years of chequered history.
Within India, elections to three states of Punjab, Uttarakhand and Manipur saw a shift in power from the ruling Congress Party to the opposition in two states less Manipur, while announcement of elections to the largest state, Uttar Pradesh in April and May increased the political tempo considerably. The terror attack on Samjhauta Express was a grim reminder of continued vulnerability of the country’s transportation network. Measures for coastal security were also enhanced with an LTTE boat laden with explosives impounded in Indian waters in the Palk straits. Naxal continued their IED operations in Chattisgarh. A strategy session of the high command is said to have been held during the month indicating extension of the struggle to other areas of the country. Elections in Manipur were peaceful but for a strike on a police patrol killing 15 in a deliberate ambush by the militants.
The international focus was on North Korea which finally agreed to wind up the nuclear weapons program after successful six nation talks. Iran however remained recalcitrant. The US demonstrated greater flexibility by accepting a role for Iran and Syria in resolution of the Iraq imbroglio. The situation in Iraq showed signs of marginal improvement due to renewed drive by American and Iraqi forces. Sustained pressure for over three to six months alone will show perceptible results as some reports indicated use of chlorine gas by Iraqi insurgents. Iran suffered a major terrorist attack by Sunni terrorist group, Jumdullah on the Western township of Zahedan, resulting in 17 casualties. The insurgency in southern Thailand showed an upsurge with serial attacks rocking over 45 places during the month, a grim cue to the leadership now comprising mostly of former and serving military brass.
The month of March presages more violence in Afghanistan, Iraq and other parts where militancy is proliferating including in Sri Lanka. The looming clouds of US strikes on Iran however seem to have receded giving some hope for peace.
For a complete review of the Security Trends in South Asia for all months so far, please go to www.security-risks.com
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