Outline Trends
· Opening moves of spring offensive in Eastern and
· Emergency likely to be relaxed with elections due in four corporations and eight municipalities.
· Heavy campaigning for National Assembly elections, with stray bomb attacks anticipated. Strikes will not disrupt elections.
· Olympics surge will commence with preparations gathering momentum.
· Political tempo will increase with campaigning likely to commence at low key.
· SPDC government will maintain strict control over democratic activity, first stage of preparations for referendum on Constitution will commence.
· Election campaigning will gather momentum, Violence in Terai expected. Stray cases of bomb attacks to disrupt elections.
· Government formation process to gather momentum.
· Hectic political lobbying anticipated, with heavy pressure on President Musharraf to leave, however will have marginal impact as he is likely to continue in power.
· Attacks by terrorists across the board including raids on army posts and suicide strikes will increase.
· Army operations in NWFP, North and
· Heavy fighting in
· Local elections in Batticaloa may experience some violence.
· Political initiative by the Government likely.
· Continued high alert due to attempts by terrorists to conduct a major strike in the hinterland.
· Militancy flow will reduce considerably, political parties will manoeuvre for elections
North East
· Government formation in Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland
·
· Karbi Anglong and
Naxal
· Chattisgarh,
· Stray attacks in Orissa and low level activity in Andhra Pradesh and
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