Outline Trends South Asia - March

Afghanistan

· Opening moves of spring offensive in Eastern and Southern Afghanistan with increase in suicide attacks, road side IEDs, and bombs by Taliban and pre-emptive surge by ISAF anticipated. Poppy cultivation will commence in South Afghanistan

Bangladesh

· Emergency likely to be relaxed with elections due in four corporations and eight municipalities.

Bhutan

· Heavy campaigning for National Assembly elections, with stray bomb attacks anticipated. Strikes will not disrupt elections.

China

· Olympics surge will commence with preparations gathering momentum.

Maldives

· Political tempo will increase with campaigning likely to commence at low key.

Myanmar

· SPDC government will maintain strict control over democratic activity, first stage of preparations for referendum on Constitution will commence.

Nepal

· Election campaigning will gather momentum, Violence in Terai expected. Stray cases of bomb attacks to disrupt elections.

Pakistan

· Government formation process to gather momentum.

· Hectic political lobbying anticipated, with heavy pressure on President Musharraf to leave, however will have marginal impact as he is likely to continue in power.

· Attacks by terrorists across the board including raids on army posts and suicide strikes will increase.

· Army operations in NWFP, North and South Waziristan expected.

Sri Lanka :

· Heavy fighting in Northern Sri Lanka with suicide, bomb and claymore strikes by LTTE in the South and East will continue.

· Local elections in Batticaloa may experience some violence.

· Political initiative by the Government likely.

India

· Continued high alert due to attempts by terrorists to conduct a major strike in the hinterland.

Kashmir

· Militancy flow will reduce considerably, political parties will manoeuvre for elections

North East

· Government formation in Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland

· Assam and Manipur will remain distressed with continued terrorist activity including extortion and kidnapping.

· Karbi Anglong and North Cachar may encounter targeted killing of Hindi speaking and project personnel.

Naxal

· Chattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand will experience continued encounters with Naxals. Police resistance may increase and see fierce fighting.

· Stray attacks in Orissa and low level activity in Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal anticipated.

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