Monday, March 29, 2010

The Familiar Awami League: BNP Political Battles

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party [BNP] finally decided to attend the Parliament after a break of one Year plus. Opposition Chief Whip Joynal Abedin Farroque made the announcement. After staying out of the parliament or Jatiya Sansad for almost one year plus the BNP most likely found itself politically marginalized and therefore thought it prudent to come to the house to raise issues of relevance and put itself in the media lime light. The party was finding it increasingly difficult to remain relevant in the country’s polity given enlightened policies being attempted by the Awami League.

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The Maoists Attempt to Gain Initiative: Call for Cease Fire

Almost immediately after the attack in Silda and Jamui, the Maoists were operationalising a strategy of talks with the government. Gopinathji alias Durga Hembram, wanted talks at the earliest while Kishenji the military commander was opposing it in a central committee meeting of 30 of the 36 member including those from Bihar, Jharkhand and Orissa in the Kanai-shol hill forest area as per media reports. CPI (Maoist) general secretary Ganapathy proposed to put three conditions before the government — withdrawal of forces, release of Maoists from jail and lifting of the ban on the party said the media.

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Counter Naxal Advice From Veterans

As per veteran counter terrorism expert Mr K P S Gill, “The most rudimentary components of a counter-insurgency (CI) response to the Maoist challenge are yet to be put in place. In truth, state police forces will have to be enormously expanded, prepared, trained, equipped, revitalised and, crucially, led and mandated, before any coherent CI strategy can be effectively implemented in West Bengal”. Mr Gill has also recommended immediate review of siting of all camps, improvement in communications and leadership as well as flow of intelligence. He indicates that beefing up security by providing central forces may not be the answer to the vexing challenges which will have to be mainly fought by the State police.

in reference to: Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security (view on Google Sidewiki)

Assam: Cease Fire with Karbis

On 11 February Karbi tribal guerrillas surrendered in Assam, bringing to an end their more than 15-year-old armed struggle for political autonomy. Around 400 militants of the Karbi Longri NC Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF) laid down arms at a formal ceremony in Diphu, some 270 km south of Guwahati. A list of the arms which the KLNLF cadres deposited included 20 AK series assault rifles, 17 AK series rifles, 5 Nos of M-16 series rifles, USG gun – 1, Light Machine Gun - 1, Six Nos of 40 mm gun , One Rifle Launcher, One RPG - 4, SLR- 3, .22 pistol – 2, US Carbine – 1, M- 21 rifle – 4, Stand Carbine – 3, MP- 54, RDX- 500 grams, IID- 2, 3.6. gun- 3, SBBL- 5, DBBL – 2, UBBL 29, 9 mm pistol – 13, .32 pistol – 13, 9380 rounds of bullets, 25 KG- TNT, 14 nos of radio base, Time devise – 2 etc. Karbi Longri NC Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF) claimed that it had only decommissioned its arms conditionally i.e, joint custody.

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Indo Nepal Relations

Indian Prime Minister Dr Man Mohan Singh may visit Nepal in the month of March. The Indian premier has accepted the invitation of his Nepali counterpart Madhav Kumar Nepal. Indian Minister for External Affairs S.M Krishna visited Nepal from January 15-17 while the Chief of Staff of the Indian Army General Deepak Kapoor was in the country from January 21-23 and was conferred the Honorary Rank of General of Nepal Army

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Thursday, March 18, 2010

Arms Sales to Taiwan: Freeze in Sino US Defence Relations

Plans of the United States to sell 6.4 billion dollars weapons to Taiwan has placed Sino US Defence relations in suspension as China complained about the arms deal summoning defence attaché in Beijing to the defence ministry. The package of arms approved by the US includes Patriot missiles, Black Hawk helicopters, and communications equipment for Taiwan's F-16 fleet. Deputy foreign minister He Yafei had warned in a statement earlier that the arms deal was “bound to damage Sino-US relations, bringing about serious negative impact on exchange and cooperation in major areas between the two countries, causing results that both sides do not want to see”.

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Tuesday, March 16, 2010

The Familiar Awami League: BNP Political Battles

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party [BNP] finally decided to attend the Parliament after a break of one Year plus. Opposition Chief Whip Joynal Abedin Farroque made the announcement. After staying out of the parliament or Jatiya Sansad for almost one year plus the BNP most likely found itself politically marginalized and therefore thought it prudent to come to the house to raise issues of relevance and put itself in the media lime light. The party was finding it increasingly difficult to remain relevant in the country’s polity given enlightened policies being attempted by the Awami League.

in reference to: Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security (view on Google Sidewiki)

Balochistan: PPP Attempts Reconciliation

The Pakistan People’s Party is addressing the problems in Balochistan primarily related to disaffection of the people due to long time suppression of aspirations due to army mismanagement. The government has a soft policy in the Province. While Balochistan is the country’s largest province geographically it lacks momentum of a large population to make its voice heard in the national fora. The militancy is therefore active in the area but is at a low key and the violence remains marginal mainly targeted at the security forces. The army has carried out a number of campaigns to suppress the same in the past but has failed to address the main core issue of disaffection of the people.

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The Security Situation

A latest UN Report on Afghanistan indicates that the security situation has deteriorated with an average of 1,244 incidents per month in the third quarter of 2009. This is a 65 per cent increase over incidents in 2008. Armed clashes, improvised explosive devices and stand-off attacks constitute majority of incidents with IED incidents higher by 60 per cent than in 2008. Insurgents increasingly use improvised explosive devices triggered by pressure plates, increasing the risk for road travel and has caused an increase in civilian casualties.

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Political Gamesmanship

President Hamid Karzai's principal critic Dr Abdullah Abdullah said a political uprising was needed against the incumbent government. His remarks came as the President is increasingly usurping authority in the country assuming the primary role in Afghanistan politics by consolidating key powers such as the election commission. The Afghan Election Commission is already under full Presidential control and with limited parliamentary supervision, consolidating hold over Election Complaints Commission which is under the UN would further consolidate Karzai’s power over state institutions.

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Peace And Reconciliation

Afghan peace and reconciliation efforts are likely to be long drawn out. The tempo for the peace jirga in April is however building up and the government is doing well to spread the message and gather support. However the information flow at present is only one sided, for the Taliban would be devising their strategy. The overall struggle at the higher level is that of power and ideology. The Taliban will want influential positions in the government rather than being second rate leaders under a Karzai government for abandoning their ideology of an Islamic Caliphate in the country.

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Monday, March 15, 2010

Indo Russian Cooperation: Firming Up A Legacy of Partnership

Indo Russian relations are once again in the lime light with the recent visit of the Indian President to Moscow firming up the same and are scheduled to be followed up by the signing of extension of the strategic and military partnership by another 10 years during the annual summit meeting in Moscow this December. Indo Russian Cooperation also received a fillip during the month with External Affairs Minister S M Krishna co-chairing a session of Indo-Russian Intergovernmental Commission (IRIGC) to discuss ways to further consolidate the bilateral strategic partnership in Moscow.

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India’s Foreign Policy Goals Meshing with US QDR

India’s broad foreign policy goals were outlined by the Indian Foreign Secretary in her address at the Third MEA-IISS Seminar “Perspectives on Foreign Policy for a 21st Century India.” These are summarized as given below:-
India’s aim is to secure an enabling environment to achieve the overriding domestic goal of all round, socially inclusive development. The corollary to this is that a free and democratic India is a source of stability and a force for moderation in the region. India accounts for more than 70% of the population and more than 80% of the GDP of South Asia. We want to widen our development choices. We have a keen sense of our potential to be a great power by virtue of our population, our resources and our strategic location.

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Indo Pakistan Relations – The Impasse Continues

While there has been a major mark up by the civil society to cool down the tempers in Indo Pakistan relations with a campaign called as, “Aman ki Asha” led by the Times of India group in India and the Jang Group in Pakistan, the stand off in official relations continued. There was much sparring between the Indian and Pakistan foreign minister at London where they briefly shook hands and exchanged pleasantries. However there was no official dialogue as was expected by some. There does not appear to be any hopes of resumption of composite dialogue though people issues such as release of fishermen, prisoners and people-to-people contact continues.

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India Pakistan Talks: Well Begun But Not Half Done

India Pakistan Foreign Secretary Level talks the first stage of resumption of dialogue after Mumbai 26/11 between the two South Asian neighbours were held in New Delhi on 25 February. India’s proposal for talks was readily accepted by Pakistan and the High Commissioner Shahid Malik met Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao to discuss dates reopening the process in early February. When finally Pakistan's Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir and Ms Nirupama Rao met on 25 February there was possibly some relief on both sides. For the nay sayers in Pakistan had ensured that there would be a hiccup in the form of a bomb blast in Pune, Maharashtra.

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Taliban And Terrorism : Pakistan’s Twin Confessions

In a surprisingly candid statement for the first time by a prominent Pakistani leader, President Asif Zardari acknowledged the presence of large number of Taliban in the country. This confession came just a few days after the Interior Advisor, Mr Rehman Malik accepted that the attack in Mumbai 26/11 was planned and launched from Pakistan.



President Asif Zardari stated to CBS news as per press reports in Indian newspapers on Sunday, “We are aware of the fact it’s ... Taliban... trying to take over the state of Pakistan. So, we’re fighting for the survival of Pakistan. We’re not fighting for the survival of anybody else.”

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Militancy – Continued Battles in FATA and Terrorism

In major operations during the month, Pakistani forces claimed to have cleared Bajaur agency at the northern tip of the semi-autonomous tribal belt. Security forces gained control over the Damadola area in Bajaur Agency, which is believed to be a stronghold of militants. Chief of the Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani claimed that the key objectives of the military operation in South Waziristan had been achieved and most of the high profile militants had been wiped out. He also indicated that development work would commence to create an atmosphere for return of the refugees.

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UN Disarmament – Pakistan’s Resistance

Pakistan blocked the adoption of the 2010 agenda for the UN-sponsored Conference on Disarmament. The conference, the world's sole multinational negotiating forum for disarmament, spent much of 2009 stuck on procedural wrangles raised by Pakistan after breaking a 12-year deadlock to agree a programme of work. The impasse on suggested 2010 would be another year of halting progress. Adoption of the agenda at the start of the annual session is normally a formality, but Pakistan Ambassador Zamir Akram took the floor to call for the agenda to be broadened to cover two other issues conventional arms control at the regional and sub-regional level, in line with a United Nations General Assembly resolution sponsored by Pakistan and passed last year and a global regime on all aspects of missiles.

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Sino Pakistan Defence Relations

Sino Pakistan Defence relations were renewed with the 7th Round of Talks held during the month. On 09 January, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Tariq Majeed led the Pakistan side during talks while the Chinese side was led by the Deputy Chief of the People's Liberation Army Staff General Ma Xiaotian at the Joint Staff Headquarters, Chaklala. The discussion focused on the impact of changing global security dynamics, progress in the efforts against terrorism and violent extremism, revised US strategy for Afghanistan, intra-regional disputes and posturing of involved states, and the tenuous spectre of strategic stability in the region.

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Apprehension of Afghan Taliban Leadership

The dynamics of Pakistan’s relations with the Afghanistan Taliban is set to change as on 17 February it confirmed for the first time that it has the Afghan Taliban's No. 2 leader, Mullah Barader in custody. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar was arrested around 10 days ago in a joint operation by CIA and Pakistani security forces in Karachi claimed reports. This was followed by the capture of two “shadow governors” of Afghanistan Taliban Mullah Abdul Salam and Mullah Mir Mohammad, respectively of the northern Afghan provinces of Kunduz and Baghlan in Balochistan province. Pakistan also arrested Mulvi Kabir, one of the top 10 most wanted Taliban leaders and a former Taliban governor of Afghanistan's Nangahar Province.

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Saturday, March 13, 2010

Assam: Cease Fire with Karbis

On 11 February Karbi tribal guerrillas surrendered in Assam, bringing to an end their more than 15-year-old armed struggle for political autonomy. Around 400 militants of the Karbi Longri NC Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF) laid down arms at a formal ceremony in Diphu, some 270 km south of Guwahati. A list of the arms which the KLNLF cadres deposited included 20 AK series assault rifles, 17 AK series rifles, 5 Nos of M-16 series rifles, USG gun – 1, Light Machine Gun - 1, Six Nos of 40 mm gun , One Rifle Launcher, One RPG - 4, SLR- 3, .22 pistol – 2, US Carbine – 1, M- 21 rifle – 4, Stand Carbine – 3, MP- 54, RDX- 500 grams, IID- 2, 3.6. gun- 3, SBBL- 5, DBBL – 2, UBBL 29, 9 mm pistol – 13, .32 pistol – 13, 9380 rounds of bullets, 25 KG- TNT, 14 nos of radio base, Time devise – 2 etc. Karbi Longri NC Hills Liberation Front (KLNLF) claimed that it had only decommissioned its arms conditionally i.e, joint custody.

in reference to: Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security (view on Google Sidewiki)

Naxal Strikes: Strategy Exploits Police Debility

Even as the Central Government was making grandiose schemes for launching coordinated operations in Maoist affected Central India, the guerrillas launched two major attacks during February killing scores and quickly followed it up by an offer of cease fire putting the Ministry of Home Affairs in a quandary. This was perhaps a direct response of the guerrillas to the Union Home Minister Mr P Chidambaram who had been galvanizing state governments as well as central security forces into action through out the month and had called the Maoists to abjure violence and come for talks.

in reference to: Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security (view on Google Sidewiki)

The Maoists Attempt to Gain Initiative: Call for Cease Fire

Almost immediately after the attack in Silda and Jamui, the Maoists were operationalising a strategy of talks with the government. Gopinathji alias Durga Hembram, wanted talks at the earliest while Kishenji the military commander was opposing it in a central committee meeting of 30 of the 36 member including those from Bihar, Jharkhand and Orissa in the Kanai-shol hill forest area as per media reports. CPI (Maoist) general secretary Ganapathy proposed to put three conditions before the government — withdrawal of forces, release of Maoists from jail and lifting of the ban on the party said the media.

in reference to: Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security (view on Google Sidewiki)

Counter Naxal Advice From Veterans

As per veteran counter terrorism expert Mr K P S Gill, “The most rudimentary components of a counter-insurgency (CI) response to the Maoist challenge are yet to be put in place. In truth, state police forces will have to be enormously expanded, prepared, trained, equipped, revitalised and, crucially, led and mandated, before any coherent CI strategy can be effectively implemented in West Bengal”. Mr Gill has also recommended immediate review of siting of all camps, improvement in communications and leadership as well as flow of intelligence. He indicates that beefing up security by providing central forces may not be the answer to the vexing challenges which will have to be mainly fought by the State police.

in reference to: Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security (view on Google Sidewiki)

Depoliticise Police, Build Capacity

The focus of police capacity building of the government has been on allotment of funds and enhancing capacity of the central police whereas the challenge is in modernizing the state police which remain neglected. Therefore it is important that the same be looked into at the earliest if initiative is to be seized from the Maoists. There is a need to ensure that a firm administration is in place in West Bengal as the CPI M is now not in a fit state to carry on governance in the state with its cadres having usurped the role and power of the police who have been excessively politicized.

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TOP HEADLINES

# Roadside bomb kills six civilians in Afghanistan
# Mortar shells fired from Afghanistan hit Pak's village
# Explosions across Afghanistan's Kandahar; 30 dead
# 10 hurt, 3 held after BCL, Moitree clash with cops in Rajshahi
# Flag meeting begins after tension on Sylhet border
# Bhutan set for Saarc summit Message from Suu Kyi
# Message from Suu Kyi
# Nepal Maoists object to army chief's statement
# Unified CPN (Maoist) hints at vote of no confidence
# Maoists shut Bheri-Karnali
# Eleven killed in suicide blast at Swat checkpost

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Sunday, March 7, 2010

US Pakistan Relations

Connectivity From Military to Civil Needed



The chain of connectivity of the US and Pakistan relations is very curious. There are concerns of the same flowing from the military to the military and also from the US military to the government. Thus meeting between US military commanders such as Central Command Commander General Petraeus and the Pakistan Prime Minister are not unusual and indicates the type of clout that the Central Command wields in Pakistan.

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The Battle for Prime Ministership

With the oath of office administered to the Vice President a second time and he has been prudent enough to take the oath in his mother tongue as well as in Nepali, the atmosphere in Kathmandu seemed to have sobered down at the beginning of the month, but this was not to be for it is evident that the issue was possibly resolved as the Nepali President was due to visit India and had to have an incumbent in his absence and therefore the decision was hastened up.

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Apprehension of Afghan Taliban Leadership

The dynamics of Pakistan’s relations with the Afghanistan Taliban is set to change as on 17 February it confirmed for the first time that it has the Afghan Taliban's No. 2 leader, Mullah Barader in custody. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar was arrested around 10 days ago in a joint operation by CIA and Pakistani security forces in Karachi claimed reports.

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India’s Role in Afghanistan – A Review

The Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh assumed the unusual role of a counsel on Afghanistan to President Barack Obama during his visit to the United States. He also solicited European leaders as the Swedish premier Fredrik Reinfeldt with Sweden leading the European Union presidency. The Indian Prime Minister advocated firm long term commitment with a stark warning of a catastrophe in case of withdrawal in an interview with Newsweek, "A victory for the Taliban in Afghanistan would have catastrophic consequences for the world, particularly for South Asia, for Central Asia, for the Middle East. Religious fundamentalism in the '80s was used to defeat the Soviet Union. If this same group of people that defeated the Soviet Union now defeats the other major power (America), this would embolden them in a manner which could have catastrophic consequences for the world at large."

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India: Leveraging Afghan Policy

The third major attack in Kabul targeting Indians on 26 February brought into sharp focus India’s Afghan policy. Six Indians were killed in the attack on foreigners living in a hotel complex. What is evident is inability of New Delhi to leverage the Afghan policy to advantage despite the sacrifice of many lives and millions of dollars worth aid and harvesting tremendous goodwill with the Afghan people.

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Friday, March 5, 2010

Naxals Exploiting the Perception Space

The headless body of Sanjoy Ghosh, a 23-year old West Bengal state armed police jawan who had been kidnapped during an operation was found indicating cold blooded killing. This is the second such killing after that of Francis Induwar. The brutal approach recently adopted by the Maoists is a new form of violence that was not seen in the area earlier.

in reference to: Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security (view on Google Sidewiki)

Naxal Strikes: Strategy Exploits Police Debility

Even as the Central Government was making grandiose schemes for launching coordinated operations in Maoist affected Central India, the guerrillas launched two major attacks during February killing scores and quickly followed it up by an offer of cease fire putting the Ministry of Home Affairs in a quandary. This was perhaps a direct response of the guerrillas to the Union Home Minister Mr P Chidambaram who had been galvanizing state governments as well as central security forces into action through out the month and had called the Maoists to abjure violence and come for talks.

in reference to: Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security (view on Google Sidewiki)

The Maoists Attempt to Gain Initiative: Call for Cease Fire

Almost immediately after the attack in Silda and Jamui, the Maoists were operationalising a strategy of talks with the government. Gopinathji alias Durga Hembram, wanted talks at the earliest while Kishenji the military commander was opposing it in a central committee meeting of 30 of the 36 member including those from Bihar, Jharkhand and Orissa in the Kanai-shol hill forest area as per media reports.

in reference to: Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security (view on Google Sidewiki)

Counter Naxal Advice From Veterans

As per veteran counter terrorism expert Mr K P S Gill, “The most rudimentary components of a counter-insurgency (CI) response to the Maoist challenge are yet to be put in place. In truth, state police forces will have to be enormously expanded, prepared, trained, equipped, revitalised and, crucially, led and mandated, before any coherent CI strategy can be effectively implemented in West Bengal”.

in reference to: Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security (view on Google Sidewiki)

Depoliticise Police, Build Capacity

The focus of police capacity building of the government has been on allotment of funds and enhancing capacity of the central police whereas the challenge is in modernizing the state police which remain neglected. Therefore it is important that the same be looked into at the earliest if initiative is to be seized from the Maoists. There is a need to ensure that a firm administration is in place in West Bengal as the CPI M is now not in a fit state to carry on governance in the state with its cadres having usurped the role and power of the police who have been excessively politicized.

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Monday, March 1, 2010

Acquisitions Indian Army

The Ministry of Defence ministry has given the go-ahead for field trials of equipment of two armament companies -- Israeli Military Industries (IMI) and Singapore Technology Kinetics (STK) -- blacklisted in connection with corruption scandal against former Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) chairman Sudipto Ghosh.

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Indian Army: A New Chief, A New Vision

Lt Gen VK Singh, PVSM, AVSM, YSM, ADC, presently GOC-in-C, Eastern Command has been appointed the next Chief of the Army Staff in the rank of General with effect from the afternoon of March 31, 2010. The main challenge likely to be faced by the new Army Chief is modernization and accelerating acquisitions. After the Sukhna “land scam,” he will also be challenged to clean up the Army’s public image.

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Indo Russian Relations: Rejuvenating old Ties

The diplomatic hallmark of the month was visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Russia for the Annual Summit dialogue. Reestablishment of Indo Russian relations on a firm footing since 2000 is a major dimension of India’s emerging foreign policy with contours of multi polarity assuming greater significance in the years ahead. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, India improved its relations with the West but it continued its close relations with Russia.

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Sino Indian Relations

Sino Indian relations remain on an even keel during the month with the External Affairs Minister Mr Krishna indicating that India did not see China in “antagonistic terms”. He has very correctly identified the complexity in relationship between India and China defined by an unresolved boundary question.

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TODAYS HEAD LINES

# Attacks kill 4 NATO troops around Afghanistan
# Indian NSA to visit Kabul to review security situation
# Amnesty International asks for probe into army role in hill violence in Bangladesh
# Tarique, Koko, Patal face arrest
# Death for mutiny in border force in Bangladesh
# Maldives Government will confront threats to execution, says President
# Suu Kyi to seek special appeal
# Maoist leaders give political training to PLA commanders

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