Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security

Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security

Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security

Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security

Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security

Security-Risks.com Caring for your Safety, Life & Security

Outline Trends South Asia - March

Afghanistan

· Opening moves of spring offensive in Eastern and Southern Afghanistan with increase in suicide attacks, road side IEDs, and bombs by Taliban and pre-emptive surge by ISAF anticipated. Poppy cultivation will commence in South Afghanistan

Bangladesh

· Emergency likely to be relaxed with elections due in four corporations and eight municipalities.

Bhutan

· Heavy campaigning for National Assembly elections, with stray bomb attacks anticipated. Strikes will not disrupt elections.

China

· Olympics surge will commence with preparations gathering momentum.

Maldives

· Political tempo will increase with campaigning likely to commence at low key.

Myanmar

· SPDC government will maintain strict control over democratic activity, first stage of preparations for referendum on Constitution will commence.

Nepal

· Election campaigning will gather momentum, Violence in Terai expected. Stray cases of bomb attacks to disrupt elections.

Pakistan

· Government formation process to gather momentum.

· Hectic political lobbying anticipated, with heavy pressure on President Musharraf to leave, however will have marginal impact as he is likely to continue in power.

· Attacks by terrorists across the board including raids on army posts and suicide strikes will increase.

· Army operations in NWFP, North and South Waziristan expected.

Sri Lanka :

· Heavy fighting in Northern Sri Lanka with suicide, bomb and claymore strikes by LTTE in the South and East will continue.

· Local elections in Batticaloa may experience some violence.

· Political initiative by the Government likely.

India

· Continued high alert due to attempts by terrorists to conduct a major strike in the hinterland.

Kashmir

· Militancy flow will reduce considerably, political parties will manoeuvre for elections

North East

· Government formation in Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland

· Assam and Manipur will remain distressed with continued terrorist activity including extortion and kidnapping.

· Karbi Anglong and North Cachar may encounter targeted killing of Hindi speaking and project personnel.

Naxal

· Chattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand will experience continued encounters with Naxals. Police resistance may increase and see fierce fighting.

· Stray attacks in Orissa and low level activity in Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal anticipated.

Contact rkbhonsle@gmail.com for detailed risk analysis of any country or state in South Asia. Very useful for travel, corporate investments, security analysts and business leaders for personal and corporate issues.

SCENARIOS IN PAKISTAN

SOUTH ASIA’s FIRST AND ONLY DEFENCE FOCUSED DAILY AND WEEKLY NEWS COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS

TWO PREMIUM NEWS PRODUCTS

DAILY - SAST DAILY NSCAN

NEWS, COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE

WEEKKLY - SOUTH ASIA WEEKLY SECURITY TRENDS (SAWST)

Editor and Copyright – Brig (Retd) Rahul K Bhonsle

Dear Sir,

To provide your detailed survey and analysis of the security trends in South Asia we have introduced to premium news products. A Daily News, Comments and Analysis Service – Daily NSCAN provides you with detailed coverage and analysis on security related news in South Asia to cover all countries from Afghanistan to Myanmar. Our instant response to crisis situations will be indicated by the Possible Scenarios in Pakistan (Initial Estimate) within 12 hours of the unfortunate assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Have a Look

Security – Risks.com Scenarios in Pakistan

Scenario 1. – Chaos Initially Followed by Low Level Civil War. There is likely to be chaotic situation over the next week to 14 days. Supporters of the Benazir Bhutto and the PPP are likely to be on a rampage. Control of clashes will become increasingly difficult as the entire region of Sindh and parts of Balochistan and Punjab will be on the boil. However it is anticipated that the situation will be controlled over the next two weeks. Thereafter it would depend on emergence of political consensus in the leadership. If there is continuing divide between Sharif, other political leaders and Musharraf, the chaos will continue. On the other hand serious clashes between the supporters of PPP mainly from Sindh and the pashtuns who are suspected to be behind the attack may lead to a divide in the country again contributing to possible low level civil war which will manifest into Al Qaeda types of attacks and civil unrest as witnessed in Iraq. Probability. Chaos possible over Next 14 to 30 days but situation may be under control thereafter. However beyond that possibility of low level civil war is Limited as it is anticipated that civil society and the army should be able to restore order. A lot depends on the Army Chief General Kiyani as much as Nawaz Sharif and other opposition leaders.

Scenario 2 – Elections Held after 30 Days, Elected Government Assumes Office. This is an ideal scenario for Pakistan as it would bring an elected government in office which alone can bring different elements of society together to wage the war against militancy and terrorism which is wracking the country with increased intensity. The Army and the police should be able to restore order over the next few days and bring the political parties together in an united front to bring an elected civil government to rule the country. For this statesmanship within the political class is essential. Probability. Possible. Role of General Kiyani will again be important, pressure from Saudi Arabia and the USA will be essential. International community also needs to play a proactive role.

Scenario 3 – Emergency, Indefinite Postponement of elections. This is one scenario which is also possible given the nature of chaos in the first two weeks. The Government will undertake this in case there is continued law and order problem in the country including number of suicide attacks and fratricidal conflict. This will see more uncertainty and will be detrimental to internal stability in Pakistan in the long term. Probability. Will depend on the chaotic situation. In case there is continued chaos, this may be possible, however there will be great resistance from the international community and civil society in Pakistan. This will result in continued instability in the country.

Scenario 4 – Continue to Hold Elections as Scheduled. Probability – Limited. With withdrawal of Sharif from the election process there is limited likelihood of this happening as the elections will lose their credibility and will not be seen as free and fair. This may also lead to continued political instability in Pakistan.

Security-Risks.com – Who has Done It?

There are three possibilities as follows:-

· Priority 1 – Al Qaeda – Most probable, given sophistication of the attack, however TTP assistance would have been taken. Al Qaeda would have been most seriously affected if she came to power. Is long time sworn enemy of Benazir, US also harmed.

· Priority 2 – TTP – Behtullah Mehsud group. Likely to have assisted the Al Qaeda. Is long time sworn enemy of Benazir but lacks capability for a sophisticated attack.

· Priority 3 – ISI. ISI or Elements within the Establishment including the opposing parties. Unlikely though assistance provided to the Al Qaeda tacitly cannot be ruled out.

A E Mail covering all these issues will be send to you by 1000h each day. The service is available at nominal cost of $ 150/- per month. In case you want to focus on only one or more countries, the same is available at $ 35/- per country. A sample giving NSCAN for 27 December is attached. So if you liked the sample, please reply post haste or ring up 09899692368, 09818272740.

Thanking You,

Yours Sincerely,

South Asia Security Daily News Comments Analysis

SAVING YOUR LIFE

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INDIA’S FIRST DEFENCE FOCUSED DAILY NEWS COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS : DAILY NEWS, COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE

SAST DAILY NSCAN

Editor and Copyright – Brig (Retd) Rahul K Bhonsle

Dear Sir,

Beating the information overload is very difficult each day. However here is a daily news service which packages information for you each day from a large number of sources across south asia and provides comments and analysis. For instance 25 October 2007 package of South Asia includes analysis of following key trends –

· Taliban ambush Afghan army personnel, eight dead, 10 Taliban killed in Zabul.

· NATO defence ministers mull greater commitment in Afghanistan.

· Britain Promises More Support, but political pressure may not permit greater commitment in Afghanistan.

· ACC finds no graft charge against Khaleda in Magurchhara Gas Case in Bangladesh.

· Yala raids reveal involvement of organized groups in drug induction in Dacca.

· Border conference agrees on exchange of info on terrorists, however no movement on Kolkata – Dacca railway initiative restricts impetus to Indo Bangladesh relations.

· Suu Kyi Meets Junta’s Official nominated for negotiations in Myanmar.

· Strategic Comments – Myanmar’s Transformative Movement, Providing detailed perception by experts on the way ahead in Yangon.

· Fuel price hike sparks protests in Nepal, Government attempts to play down the impact. Will this become another Myanmar?

· King plans to visit Durga temple in Bhaktapur in Nepal, rising ambitions of monarchy worries the Maoists.

· 18 troops dead in Swat blast, 30 total losses stated. Full scale military operations appear the only solution in the mountainous NWFP area in Pakistan.

· Mehsud tribal seek withdrawal of army from the area, provide concrete proposals for implementation.

· SLN killed in Tiger ambush in Hambantota claims TamilNet, confirmation awaited.

· LTTE can form political party, but not likely to accept this offer.

· Expanding India – US Military Ties despite opposition from the Left is the way ahead.

· Defence Minister’s Address to Naval Commanders Conference in New Delhi seeks project completion and greater technology and human resources management.

· A Blue Print for India’s Aero Space Industry by Air Chief provides for technology integration and seeks more funding over the next five decades.

· Tejas LCA fires the first test Close Combat Missile.

· SAARC Home Ministers Meet calls for greater cooperation, measures on ground however remain limited

· Projects in trouble spots will be hampered as per POSCO’s experience in Orissa. Effective strategy in local socio-political management is the way ahead.

· SEBI denies terror funds in Stock Markets.

· Syed Salahuddin says militancy will continue in Kashmir as Defence Minister visits the state on 27 October and violence Levels in Kashmir are coming down

· Pak trade delegation's visit to Kashmir being rescheduled due to Diwali.

· People may have to be armed against Naxals in Karnataka, an assessment.

· 12 more Ulfa to surrender in Assam.

· 6 killed in factional war between NSCN IM and K factions in Nagaland.

So If you want a dedicated source of news each day please do subscribe this service which will ensure that the news and analysis reaches you each day by 1000h (IST) sharp, to enable you to take critical decisions, be it on politics,. Security, defence or travel advise. A sample bulletin for 25 October is attached for information.

The service is available at nominal cost of $ 150/- per month. In case you want to focus on only one or more countries, the same is available at $ 35/- per country. So if you liked the sample, please reply post haste or ring up 09899692368, 09818272740.

Regards and best wishes,

Yours Sincerely,

Security Workshops Round Tables Lecturers South Asia

1. Some Workshop, Round Tables and Lectures Conducted include the following:-

• National Security Workshop – Conducted for selected Defence Attaches and Advisors – 18 and 19 January 2007.
• India Security : The New Great Game. Lecture in the USI of India – 31 May 2006.
• Information Dynamics in Low Intensity Conflict Environment – Lecture to Advanced Media Communication Course for Selected Officers of Armed Forces at Indian Institute of Mass Communication. – 18 September 2006.
• Terrorism and Counter Terrorism. Vertical Interaction Course for IPS Officers. USI of India. 04 December 2006.
• Intelligence the Key to Counter Insurgency. Vertical Interaction Course for IPS Officers. USI of India. 06 December 2006.
• Afghanistan: Scenario Status Quo and Stability. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 15 February 2007.
• Capacity Building for Out of Area Intervention Capabilities. IDSA. New Delhi. 21 March 2007.
• Evolution of Armed Forces and Military Doctrine. Indian Foreign Service Probationers Capsule. IDSA. New Delhi. 13 March 2007.
• Indo Nepal Relations. BSF Academy Gwalior. Tekanpur. India. 20 March 2007.
• Bangladesh: Restructuring a Nation. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 26 March 2007.
• India’s Internal Security: Problems and Prospects. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 26 March 2007.
• Operational Art in the LICO Environment. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 28 March 2007.
• India’s Defence Budget: Analysis and Opportunities. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 28 March 2007.
• South Asia Survey of Nuclear and Missile Profile. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 18 April 2007.
• WMD Terrorism: A Global Threat Survey. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 18 April 2007.
• Survey of Terrorist Groups in South Asia. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 20 April 2007.
• Iraq : The State of Militancy and Terrorism. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 20 April 2007.
• Countering Low Intensity Conflicts: Changing Perspective and Reassessment – Centre for Land Warfare Studies. New Delhi. 23 March 2006.
• Power Projection Capability: Assessment, Likely Challenges and Suggested Structures. “Threats and Challenges Warranting Employment of Military Force. Centre for Land Warfare Studies. New Delhi. 05 July 2006.
• Environmental Factors in Planning and Conduct of Military Operations. Discussant. Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis. New Delhi. 19 July 2006.
• Command Orientation Vs Specialisation : Need for Balance. Suggestions for Making Specialisation an Attractive Proposition. Centre for Land Warfare Studies. New Delhi 20 September 2006.
• Cost Effective Logistics Management. Logistics Management Practices : Op Enduring Freedom and OP Iraqi Freedom. Centre for Air Power Studies. New Delhi
• Planning for Air Power Application in Limited Wars. Centre for Air Power Studies. New Delhi. 4 October 2006.
• Military Joint ness – Implementation Strategy. College of Defence Management, Secunderabad. 24 November 2006.
• War on Terror and its Impact on Pakistan’s Policy. Discussant. Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis. New Delhi. 20 December 2006.
• Military Determinants of Southeast Asian Security. Workshop on "Security Dynamics in Southeast Asia" 8 February 2007. 9^th Asian Security Conference. IDSA. New Delhi.
• Legal Framework and Human Rights. Paper presented in Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) Seminar on Counter Terrorism on 27 May 2007.
• Naxalism in India : An Overview and Possible Trajectory for Resolution. Security-Risks.Com New Delhi. 21 August 2007.
• Militancy and Counter Militancy in Jammu and Kashmir – Background and General Survey. . Security-Risks.Com New Delhi. 22 August 2007.
• Indo Pakistan Relations – Importance on Stability in South Asia. Security-Risks.Com New Delhi. 18 September 2007.
• Draft Indo US 123 Agreements. Security-Risks.Com New Delhi. 18 September 2007.
• Sino Indian Relations - A Review. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 19 September 2007.
• Regional Security in South Asia. Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses. New Delhi. 20 August 2007.
• Terrorism and Counter Terrorism. Vertical Interaction Course for IPS Officers. USI of India. 23 August 2007.
• Intelligence the Key to Counter Insurgency. Vertical Interaction Course for IPS Officers. USI of India. 24 August 2007.
• Please order online copies of any of these to rkbhonsle@security-risks.com or at rkbhonsle@gmail.com. send demand draft/cheque/cash in name of SECURITY-RISKS.COM payable Delhi to Flat No 4283, B 5&6, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110070.