SCENARIOS IN PAKISTAN

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WEEKKLY - SOUTH ASIA WEEKLY SECURITY TRENDS (SAWST)

Editor and Copyright – Brig (Retd) Rahul K Bhonsle

Dear Sir,

To provide your detailed survey and analysis of the security trends in South Asia we have introduced to premium news products. A Daily News, Comments and Analysis Service – Daily NSCAN provides you with detailed coverage and analysis on security related news in South Asia to cover all countries from Afghanistan to Myanmar. Our instant response to crisis situations will be indicated by the Possible Scenarios in Pakistan (Initial Estimate) within 12 hours of the unfortunate assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Have a Look

Security – Risks.com Scenarios in Pakistan

Scenario 1. – Chaos Initially Followed by Low Level Civil War. There is likely to be chaotic situation over the next week to 14 days. Supporters of the Benazir Bhutto and the PPP are likely to be on a rampage. Control of clashes will become increasingly difficult as the entire region of Sindh and parts of Balochistan and Punjab will be on the boil. However it is anticipated that the situation will be controlled over the next two weeks. Thereafter it would depend on emergence of political consensus in the leadership. If there is continuing divide between Sharif, other political leaders and Musharraf, the chaos will continue. On the other hand serious clashes between the supporters of PPP mainly from Sindh and the pashtuns who are suspected to be behind the attack may lead to a divide in the country again contributing to possible low level civil war which will manifest into Al Qaeda types of attacks and civil unrest as witnessed in Iraq. Probability. Chaos possible over Next 14 to 30 days but situation may be under control thereafter. However beyond that possibility of low level civil war is Limited as it is anticipated that civil society and the army should be able to restore order. A lot depends on the Army Chief General Kiyani as much as Nawaz Sharif and other opposition leaders.

Scenario 2 – Elections Held after 30 Days, Elected Government Assumes Office. This is an ideal scenario for Pakistan as it would bring an elected government in office which alone can bring different elements of society together to wage the war against militancy and terrorism which is wracking the country with increased intensity. The Army and the police should be able to restore order over the next few days and bring the political parties together in an united front to bring an elected civil government to rule the country. For this statesmanship within the political class is essential. Probability. Possible. Role of General Kiyani will again be important, pressure from Saudi Arabia and the USA will be essential. International community also needs to play a proactive role.

Scenario 3 – Emergency, Indefinite Postponement of elections. This is one scenario which is also possible given the nature of chaos in the first two weeks. The Government will undertake this in case there is continued law and order problem in the country including number of suicide attacks and fratricidal conflict. This will see more uncertainty and will be detrimental to internal stability in Pakistan in the long term. Probability. Will depend on the chaotic situation. In case there is continued chaos, this may be possible, however there will be great resistance from the international community and civil society in Pakistan. This will result in continued instability in the country.

Scenario 4 – Continue to Hold Elections as Scheduled. Probability – Limited. With withdrawal of Sharif from the election process there is limited likelihood of this happening as the elections will lose their credibility and will not be seen as free and fair. This may also lead to continued political instability in Pakistan.

Security-Risks.com – Who has Done It?

There are three possibilities as follows:-

· Priority 1 – Al Qaeda – Most probable, given sophistication of the attack, however TTP assistance would have been taken. Al Qaeda would have been most seriously affected if she came to power. Is long time sworn enemy of Benazir, US also harmed.

· Priority 2 – TTP – Behtullah Mehsud group. Likely to have assisted the Al Qaeda. Is long time sworn enemy of Benazir but lacks capability for a sophisticated attack.

· Priority 3 – ISI. ISI or Elements within the Establishment including the opposing parties. Unlikely though assistance provided to the Al Qaeda tacitly cannot be ruled out.

A E Mail covering all these issues will be send to you by 1000h each day. The service is available at nominal cost of $ 150/- per month. In case you want to focus on only one or more countries, the same is available at $ 35/- per country. A sample giving NSCAN for 27 December is attached. So if you liked the sample, please reply post haste or ring up 09899692368, 09818272740.

Thanking You,

Yours Sincerely,