SOUTH ASIA - SECURITY TRENDS

OCTOBER 2007 VOLUME 1 NO 9

SAVING YOUR LIFE - CARING FOR YOUR SECURITY

September was a month of political tsunamis for South Asia. While Pakistan faced one crisis after another, there was large scale military crackdown on monks in Myanmar (Burma to most who do not approve of the military regime) leading to an emergency visit by special representative of the UN Secretary General, Mr Ibrahim Gambari. India cruising towards the Indo US Nuclear Deal, suddenly faced prospects of mid term elections as the Left parties hardened their stance on its operationalisation. In Nepal the CPM N ministers resigned from the government and threatened to stall the elections on 22 November even as confabulations continue. Even tiny Maldives suffered a bomb blast which injured many tourists, all this as Bangladesh suffered a second round of floods and Sri Lanka continued with its military campaign against the LTTE in the north. Ironically the South Asian region topped the list of orders placed for procurement of arms by developing countries in 2006. Rightly, the International Institute of Strategic Studies London commented on the human costs of the arms ‘racing’ phenomenon in the Sub Continent. In this challenging security situation we venture to portray a few developing scenarios in Pakistan in the light of the Presidential elections and India over the UPA – Left stand off on the 123 Agreement. Very few of these promise stability, so should be a must read. We welcome your comments on the dynamics of the region.

PREVIEW OF CONTENTS

Afghanistan: Preparing for a Hot Winter

Why NATO is not winning in Afghanistan? How NATO Will Win in Afghanistan?

Bangladesh: 2008 - Year of Elections

The Restructuring Process in Bangladesh, Political Flux, Shillong – Dhaka Bus Service

Bhutan: Electoral Democracy Ushering Change

Elections as a Form of Societal Transformation, Dangers of Red Rage

China : PLA’S Manifold Capability Building

‘Give and Take’ Sino Indian Boundary Issue, PLA Buglers: Information Warriors?

Myanmar: “Metta Sutta” Revolution

Military, Monks and Cyber Age Protests, Structured Approach to Democracy

Nepal : Elections or Anarchy?

The Maoists “Next Revolt” Will it Disrupt Elections? Terai Concerns

Pakistan : A Defining Quarter Ahead

All Eye’s on Presidential Elections, Army’s Crisis of Morale and Confidence

Sri Lanka : Is the LTTE Doomed?

Operational Scene – North, Operational Scene –East, Many More Miles for Peace

India : Stability of Government and Nuclear Deal

Increased military spending in S Asia, Siachen Trekking Expedition

Indo US Civil Nuclear Deal : Scenarios Ahead

The Israel and Pakistan Factor in NSG

Joint Training – Key to Future Military Engagement

Indra 07, Varuna 07, Himalayan Warrior, Proposed Centres of Excellence

Joint Armed Forces Capability Building

Change of Baton COSC and COAS, Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System

Land Forces Capability Building

Surveillance Grid in Kashmir – High Technology for Counter Infiltration

Maritime Forces Capability Building

Freedom to Use the Seas: India’s Maritime Military Strategy, Malabar 2007

Aero Space Forces Capability Building

Ayni in Tajikistan – An Outflanking Option, India’s Air Power Focus in the East

India : Continued Terror Vulnerabilities

India’s Poor Anti Terrorism Preparedness: Rap from UN, Choking Financing.

Kashmir : State Election Strategies Falling in Place

Ramzan Cease Fire in Valley – An Idea Nipped in the Bud

The North East : India’s Security Black Hole

ULFA – Underestimated but Potent, Manipur: Perils of Ethnic Cauldron

Naxalism : Contours of A Counter Naxal Strategy

Counter Naxal Strategy, From Law and Order to Restoration of Rights

With regards,

Rahul K Bhonsle

Security-risks.com

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