OCTOBER - SECURITY TRENDS IN SOUTH ASIA
October will be an eventful month in South Asia. Hopefully there should be greater stability than in September, though at present portends are quite grim. Nepal will see hectic negotiations in the beginning of the month as political parties attempt to break the impasse created by Maoists threat to pull out of the election process in case their 22 point demands are not met. Proportional representation will remain the sticky point and there are hopes of a compromise as the CPN M jockeys to gain advantage facing prospects of declining seats in a direct voting system. The fist week of October will also see a crucial election, that for the post of the President in Pakistan. While there are five candidates every body is expecting the present incumbent General Musharraf to win. However the victory will not be without blemishes, as the opposition parties have resigned en masse from the National and provincial assemblies and the NWFP legislature has been dissolved. Going by past trends these are not likely to raise qualms for the General fully backed by a selected coterie of the PML Q or the King’s party and the army top leadership which has been recently revamped.
Meanwhile the principal protagonist, Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People’s Party is set to return to the country on 18 October. She may be reinforced by an amnesty through an ordinance by the government covering a wide period from 1985 to 2007. But this may also be linked with her support to re-election of Musharraf as President, which is really a Hobson’s choice for in such an eventuality her popularity in Pakistan will plummet. Afghanistan appeared politically more stable as compared to Islamabad, though the militancy appears to be getting worse. The Taliban have spread their influence in almost 50 percent of the Southern region of Helmand, Kandahar and Uruzgan and are also dominating in Ghazni and the East. NATO forces have been hampered by the proverbial paucity of troops, thus in many cases areas secured earlier were lost to the rebels as posts weakly held by Afghan National Army or the Police (ANA/ANP) were retaken by the Taliban. This situation is likely to continue in the days ahead.
Of greater concern is the increase in the number of suicide attacks by the Taliban. Two recent attacks in Kabul have already caused over 40 deaths including 30 ANA personnel. This may seriously jeopardise the efforts of the Government to re-establish control in the country side with diversion of greater number of troops to the capital. Securing vulnerable areas and rehearsing counter suicide attack drills can achieve better results. Meanwhile, President Karzai duly fortified by extension of the UN mandate by a year offered peace talks to the Taliban which was rejected as expected till, “foreign’ troops are in the country. The only saving grace is an increase in commitment by countries as Germany, France and the Netherlands.
In Bangladesh the Election Commission has declared 2008 as the Year of elections and is proceeding with the proposed schedule while also pressurising the Caretaker Administration for greater political freedoms. The two principal political parties, the Awami League and the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) are in disarray with the leaders, Khaleda and Hasina fighting a series of legal battles against corruption. While the Awami League appears quite stable, the BNP is facing the threat of a split. Bhutan trudges ahead towards a land mark first election in the country. In Sri Lanka, the government forces seem to have established considerable superiority over the LTTE. The Rajpaksa government is also consolidating its political position with the principal opposition party the UNP giving up the proposal for a federal state. Much bloodshed is expected ahead as operations project into the winter monsoons. Maldives may see tightening of the security network as the country comes to grips with its first bomb blasts during September.
Myanmar remained a great area of concern for the international community as the military junta cracked down on the protestors over rise in fuel prices led by Buddhist monks. Many hundreds are said to be still under custody while 14 people died in firing by the military on the streets. The situation is relatively quiet but explosive even as the UN’s special envoy met the junta leaders. India concerned over the impact of spurning of relations with Yangon on the restive North East adopted a guarded approach. But the real crisis for New Delhi is likely to be from opposition by the Left parties to the Indo US Nuclear Deal. Two critical meetings are scheduled on 5 and 14 October where a possible compromise can be worked out else mid term elections faces the country. India’s extensive military cooperation in the form of joint training and exercises is likely to continue with an important joint committee meeting with Russia and the first ever joint training between the PLA and the Indian army. The intensity of joint military training necessitates creating centres of excellence in the country possibly at Kalaikunda, Vairangte and Goa.
There will however be no respite for the Army under a new Chief, as the militancy in Kashmir and the North East continues to splutter with uncanny irregularity. On the other hand the Naxals have extended their network and are now engaged in selective operations targeted to achieve political, economic and military aims. The challenges to security in South Asia thus will continue to grow exponentially.
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