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DAILY - SAST DAILY NSCAN
NEWS, COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE
WEEKKLY -
Editor and Copyright – Brig (Retd) Rahul K Bhonsle
Dear Sir,
To provide your detailed survey and analysis of the security trends in
Security – Risks.com Scenarios in
Scenario 1. – Chaos Initially Followed by Low Level Civil War. There is likely to be chaotic situation over the next week to 14 days. Supporters of the Benazir Bhutto and the PPP are likely to be on a rampage. Control of clashes will become increasingly difficult as the entire region of Sindh and parts of Balochistan and
Scenario 2 – Elections Held after 30 Days, Elected Government Assumes Office. This is an ideal scenario for
Scenario 3 – Emergency, Indefinite Postponement of elections. This is one scenario which is also possible given the nature of chaos in the first two weeks. The Government will undertake this in case there is continued law and order problem in the country including number of suicide attacks and fratricidal conflict. This will see more uncertainty and will be detrimental to internal stability in
Scenario 4 – Continue to Hold Elections as Scheduled. Probability – Limited. With withdrawal of Sharif from the election process there is limited likelihood of this happening as the elections will lose their credibility and will not be seen as free and fair. This may also lead to continued political instability in
Security-Risks.com – Who has Done It?
There are three possibilities as follows:-
· Priority 1 – Al Qaeda – Most probable, given sophistication of the attack, however TTP assistance would have been taken. Al Qaeda would have been most seriously affected if she came to power. Is long time sworn enemy of
· Priority 2 – TTP – Behtullah Mehsud group. Likely to have assisted the Al Qaeda. Is long time sworn enemy of Benazir but lacks capability for a sophisticated attack.
· Priority 3 – ISI. ISI or Elements within the Establishment including the opposing parties. Unlikely though assistance provided to the Al Qaeda tacitly cannot be ruled out.
A E Mail covering all these issues will be send to you by 1000h each day. The service is available at nominal cost of $ 150/- per month. In case you want to focus on only one or more countries, the same is available at $ 35/- per country. A sample giving NSCAN for 27 December is attached. So if you liked the sample, please reply post haste or ring up 09899692368, 09818272740.
Thanking You,
Yours Sincerely,