SCENARIOS IN PAKISTAN

SOUTH ASIA’s FIRST AND ONLY DEFENCE FOCUSED DAILY AND WEEKLY NEWS COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS

TWO PREMIUM NEWS PRODUCTS

DAILY - SAST DAILY NSCAN

NEWS, COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE

WEEKKLY - SOUTH ASIA WEEKLY SECURITY TRENDS (SAWST)

Editor and Copyright – Brig (Retd) Rahul K Bhonsle

Dear Sir,

To provide your detailed survey and analysis of the security trends in South Asia we have introduced to premium news products. A Daily News, Comments and Analysis Service – Daily NSCAN provides you with detailed coverage and analysis on security related news in South Asia to cover all countries from Afghanistan to Myanmar. Our instant response to crisis situations will be indicated by the Possible Scenarios in Pakistan (Initial Estimate) within 12 hours of the unfortunate assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Have a Look

Security – Risks.com Scenarios in Pakistan

Scenario 1. – Chaos Initially Followed by Low Level Civil War. There is likely to be chaotic situation over the next week to 14 days. Supporters of the Benazir Bhutto and the PPP are likely to be on a rampage. Control of clashes will become increasingly difficult as the entire region of Sindh and parts of Balochistan and Punjab will be on the boil. However it is anticipated that the situation will be controlled over the next two weeks. Thereafter it would depend on emergence of political consensus in the leadership. If there is continuing divide between Sharif, other political leaders and Musharraf, the chaos will continue. On the other hand serious clashes between the supporters of PPP mainly from Sindh and the pashtuns who are suspected to be behind the attack may lead to a divide in the country again contributing to possible low level civil war which will manifest into Al Qaeda types of attacks and civil unrest as witnessed in Iraq. Probability. Chaos possible over Next 14 to 30 days but situation may be under control thereafter. However beyond that possibility of low level civil war is Limited as it is anticipated that civil society and the army should be able to restore order. A lot depends on the Army Chief General Kiyani as much as Nawaz Sharif and other opposition leaders.

Scenario 2 – Elections Held after 30 Days, Elected Government Assumes Office. This is an ideal scenario for Pakistan as it would bring an elected government in office which alone can bring different elements of society together to wage the war against militancy and terrorism which is wracking the country with increased intensity. The Army and the police should be able to restore order over the next few days and bring the political parties together in an united front to bring an elected civil government to rule the country. For this statesmanship within the political class is essential. Probability. Possible. Role of General Kiyani will again be important, pressure from Saudi Arabia and the USA will be essential. International community also needs to play a proactive role.

Scenario 3 – Emergency, Indefinite Postponement of elections. This is one scenario which is also possible given the nature of chaos in the first two weeks. The Government will undertake this in case there is continued law and order problem in the country including number of suicide attacks and fratricidal conflict. This will see more uncertainty and will be detrimental to internal stability in Pakistan in the long term. Probability. Will depend on the chaotic situation. In case there is continued chaos, this may be possible, however there will be great resistance from the international community and civil society in Pakistan. This will result in continued instability in the country.

Scenario 4 – Continue to Hold Elections as Scheduled. Probability – Limited. With withdrawal of Sharif from the election process there is limited likelihood of this happening as the elections will lose their credibility and will not be seen as free and fair. This may also lead to continued political instability in Pakistan.

Security-Risks.com – Who has Done It?

There are three possibilities as follows:-

· Priority 1 – Al Qaeda – Most probable, given sophistication of the attack, however TTP assistance would have been taken. Al Qaeda would have been most seriously affected if she came to power. Is long time sworn enemy of Benazir, US also harmed.

· Priority 2 – TTP – Behtullah Mehsud group. Likely to have assisted the Al Qaeda. Is long time sworn enemy of Benazir but lacks capability for a sophisticated attack.

· Priority 3 – ISI. ISI or Elements within the Establishment including the opposing parties. Unlikely though assistance provided to the Al Qaeda tacitly cannot be ruled out.

A E Mail covering all these issues will be send to you by 1000h each day. The service is available at nominal cost of $ 150/- per month. In case you want to focus on only one or more countries, the same is available at $ 35/- per country. A sample giving NSCAN for 27 December is attached. So if you liked the sample, please reply post haste or ring up 09899692368, 09818272740.

Thanking You,

Yours Sincerely,

South Asia Security Daily News Comments Analysis

SAVING YOUR LIFE

CARING FOR YOUR SECURITY

INDIA’S FIRST DEFENCE FOCUSED DAILY NEWS COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS : DAILY NEWS, COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE

SAST DAILY NSCAN

Editor and Copyright – Brig (Retd) Rahul K Bhonsle

Dear Sir,

Beating the information overload is very difficult each day. However here is a daily news service which packages information for you each day from a large number of sources across south asia and provides comments and analysis. For instance 25 October 2007 package of South Asia includes analysis of following key trends –

· Taliban ambush Afghan army personnel, eight dead, 10 Taliban killed in Zabul.

· NATO defence ministers mull greater commitment in Afghanistan.

· Britain Promises More Support, but political pressure may not permit greater commitment in Afghanistan.

· ACC finds no graft charge against Khaleda in Magurchhara Gas Case in Bangladesh.

· Yala raids reveal involvement of organized groups in drug induction in Dacca.

· Border conference agrees on exchange of info on terrorists, however no movement on Kolkata – Dacca railway initiative restricts impetus to Indo Bangladesh relations.

· Suu Kyi Meets Junta’s Official nominated for negotiations in Myanmar.

· Strategic Comments – Myanmar’s Transformative Movement, Providing detailed perception by experts on the way ahead in Yangon.

· Fuel price hike sparks protests in Nepal, Government attempts to play down the impact. Will this become another Myanmar?

· King plans to visit Durga temple in Bhaktapur in Nepal, rising ambitions of monarchy worries the Maoists.

· 18 troops dead in Swat blast, 30 total losses stated. Full scale military operations appear the only solution in the mountainous NWFP area in Pakistan.

· Mehsud tribal seek withdrawal of army from the area, provide concrete proposals for implementation.

· SLN killed in Tiger ambush in Hambantota claims TamilNet, confirmation awaited.

· LTTE can form political party, but not likely to accept this offer.

· Expanding India – US Military Ties despite opposition from the Left is the way ahead.

· Defence Minister’s Address to Naval Commanders Conference in New Delhi seeks project completion and greater technology and human resources management.

· A Blue Print for India’s Aero Space Industry by Air Chief provides for technology integration and seeks more funding over the next five decades.

· Tejas LCA fires the first test Close Combat Missile.

· SAARC Home Ministers Meet calls for greater cooperation, measures on ground however remain limited

· Projects in trouble spots will be hampered as per POSCO’s experience in Orissa. Effective strategy in local socio-political management is the way ahead.

· SEBI denies terror funds in Stock Markets.

· Syed Salahuddin says militancy will continue in Kashmir as Defence Minister visits the state on 27 October and violence Levels in Kashmir are coming down

· Pak trade delegation's visit to Kashmir being rescheduled due to Diwali.

· People may have to be armed against Naxals in Karnataka, an assessment.

· 12 more Ulfa to surrender in Assam.

· 6 killed in factional war between NSCN IM and K factions in Nagaland.

So If you want a dedicated source of news each day please do subscribe this service which will ensure that the news and analysis reaches you each day by 1000h (IST) sharp, to enable you to take critical decisions, be it on politics,. Security, defence or travel advise. A sample bulletin for 25 October is attached for information.

The service is available at nominal cost of $ 150/- per month. In case you want to focus on only one or more countries, the same is available at $ 35/- per country. So if you liked the sample, please reply post haste or ring up 09899692368, 09818272740.

Regards and best wishes,

Yours Sincerely,

Security Workshops Round Tables Lecturers South Asia

1. Some Workshop, Round Tables and Lectures Conducted include the following:-

• National Security Workshop – Conducted for selected Defence Attaches and Advisors – 18 and 19 January 2007.
• India Security : The New Great Game. Lecture in the USI of India – 31 May 2006.
• Information Dynamics in Low Intensity Conflict Environment – Lecture to Advanced Media Communication Course for Selected Officers of Armed Forces at Indian Institute of Mass Communication. – 18 September 2006.
• Terrorism and Counter Terrorism. Vertical Interaction Course for IPS Officers. USI of India. 04 December 2006.
• Intelligence the Key to Counter Insurgency. Vertical Interaction Course for IPS Officers. USI of India. 06 December 2006.
• Afghanistan: Scenario Status Quo and Stability. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 15 February 2007.
• Capacity Building for Out of Area Intervention Capabilities. IDSA. New Delhi. 21 March 2007.
• Evolution of Armed Forces and Military Doctrine. Indian Foreign Service Probationers Capsule. IDSA. New Delhi. 13 March 2007.
• Indo Nepal Relations. BSF Academy Gwalior. Tekanpur. India. 20 March 2007.
• Bangladesh: Restructuring a Nation. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 26 March 2007.
• India’s Internal Security: Problems and Prospects. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 26 March 2007.
• Operational Art in the LICO Environment. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 28 March 2007.
• India’s Defence Budget: Analysis and Opportunities. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 28 March 2007.
• South Asia Survey of Nuclear and Missile Profile. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 18 April 2007.
• WMD Terrorism: A Global Threat Survey. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 18 April 2007.
• Survey of Terrorist Groups in South Asia. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 20 April 2007.
• Iraq : The State of Militancy and Terrorism. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 20 April 2007.
• Countering Low Intensity Conflicts: Changing Perspective and Reassessment – Centre for Land Warfare Studies. New Delhi. 23 March 2006.
• Power Projection Capability: Assessment, Likely Challenges and Suggested Structures. “Threats and Challenges Warranting Employment of Military Force. Centre for Land Warfare Studies. New Delhi. 05 July 2006.
• Environmental Factors in Planning and Conduct of Military Operations. Discussant. Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis. New Delhi. 19 July 2006.
• Command Orientation Vs Specialisation : Need for Balance. Suggestions for Making Specialisation an Attractive Proposition. Centre for Land Warfare Studies. New Delhi 20 September 2006.
• Cost Effective Logistics Management. Logistics Management Practices : Op Enduring Freedom and OP Iraqi Freedom. Centre for Air Power Studies. New Delhi
• Planning for Air Power Application in Limited Wars. Centre for Air Power Studies. New Delhi. 4 October 2006.
• Military Joint ness – Implementation Strategy. College of Defence Management, Secunderabad. 24 November 2006.
• War on Terror and its Impact on Pakistan’s Policy. Discussant. Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis. New Delhi. 20 December 2006.
• Military Determinants of Southeast Asian Security. Workshop on "Security Dynamics in Southeast Asia" 8 February 2007. 9^th Asian Security Conference. IDSA. New Delhi.
• Legal Framework and Human Rights. Paper presented in Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) Seminar on Counter Terrorism on 27 May 2007.
• Naxalism in India : An Overview and Possible Trajectory for Resolution. Security-Risks.Com New Delhi. 21 August 2007.
• Militancy and Counter Militancy in Jammu and Kashmir – Background and General Survey. . Security-Risks.Com New Delhi. 22 August 2007.
• Indo Pakistan Relations – Importance on Stability in South Asia. Security-Risks.Com New Delhi. 18 September 2007.
• Draft Indo US 123 Agreements. Security-Risks.Com New Delhi. 18 September 2007.
• Sino Indian Relations - A Review. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 19 September 2007.
• Regional Security in South Asia. Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses. New Delhi. 20 August 2007.
• Terrorism and Counter Terrorism. Vertical Interaction Course for IPS Officers. USI of India. 23 August 2007.
• Intelligence the Key to Counter Insurgency. Vertical Interaction Course for IPS Officers. USI of India. 24 August 2007.
• Please order online copies of any of these to rkbhonsle@security-risks.com or at rkbhonsle@gmail.com. send demand draft/cheque/cash in name of SECURITY-RISKS.COM payable Delhi to Flat No 4283, B 5&6, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110070.

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY RESEARCH REPORTS

Security-risks.com is regularly publishing research reports on securty in south asia. Some of our recent reports are as below:-

1. Research Reports, Security Alerts, Presentations and News Syndication. Some Recent Research Reports published in last three months:-

a. Afghanistan National Army - A Review. Available soft copy only for public issue. Price Rs 1000/-
b. Hizb ut Tahrir. Not Available.
c. Tableeghi Jamaat. Not Available.
d. Al Qaeda in India. Not Available.
e. Nature of Future Wars. Not Available.
f. Lashkar e Taiyyaba. Not Available.
g. Hizbul Mujahideen. Not Available.
h. Lashkar e Jhangvi. Not Available.
i. Peace Mission 2007 and SCO Summit. Available for soft copy only for Public Issue. Price Rs 600/-
j. India’s Defence Strategy and Acquisition Programme. Will Be Available by Mid Oct.

Please order online rkbhonsle@security-risks.com or at rkbhonsle@gmail.com. send demand draft/cheque/cash in name of SECURITY-RISKS.COM payable Delhi to Flat No 4283, B 5&6, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110070.

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS OCTOBER 2007

OCTOBER - SECURITY TRENDS IN SOUTH ASIA

October will be an eventful month in South Asia. Hopefully there should be greater stability than in September, though at present portends are quite grim. Nepal will see hectic negotiations in the beginning of the month as political parties attempt to break the impasse created by Maoists threat to pull out of the election process in case their 22 point demands are not met. Proportional representation will remain the sticky point and there are hopes of a compromise as the CPN M jockeys to gain advantage facing prospects of declining seats in a direct voting system. The fist week of October will also see a crucial election, that for the post of the President in Pakistan. While there are five candidates every body is expecting the present incumbent General Musharraf to win. However the victory will not be without blemishes, as the opposition parties have resigned en masse from the National and provincial assemblies and the NWFP legislature has been dissolved. Going by past trends these are not likely to raise qualms for the General fully backed by a selected coterie of the PML Q or the King’s party and the army top leadership which has been recently revamped.

Meanwhile the principal protagonist, Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People’s Party is set to return to the country on 18 October. She may be reinforced by an amnesty through an ordinance by the government covering a wide period from 1985 to 2007. But this may also be linked with her support to re-election of Musharraf as President, which is really a Hobson’s choice for in such an eventuality her popularity in Pakistan will plummet. Afghanistan appeared politically more stable as compared to Islamabad, though the militancy appears to be getting worse. The Taliban have spread their influence in almost 50 percent of the Southern region of Helmand, Kandahar and Uruzgan and are also dominating in Ghazni and the East. NATO forces have been hampered by the proverbial paucity of troops, thus in many cases areas secured earlier were lost to the rebels as posts weakly held by Afghan National Army or the Police (ANA/ANP) were retaken by the Taliban. This situation is likely to continue in the days ahead.

Of greater concern is the increase in the number of suicide attacks by the Taliban. Two recent attacks in Kabul have already caused over 40 deaths including 30 ANA personnel. This may seriously jeopardise the efforts of the Government to re-establish control in the country side with diversion of greater number of troops to the capital. Securing vulnerable areas and rehearsing counter suicide attack drills can achieve better results. Meanwhile, President Karzai duly fortified by extension of the UN mandate by a year offered peace talks to the Taliban which was rejected as expected till, “foreign’ troops are in the country. The only saving grace is an increase in commitment by countries as Germany, France and the Netherlands.

In Bangladesh the Election Commission has declared 2008 as the Year of elections and is proceeding with the proposed schedule while also pressurising the Caretaker Administration for greater political freedoms. The two principal political parties, the Awami League and the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) are in disarray with the leaders, Khaleda and Hasina fighting a series of legal battles against corruption. While the Awami League appears quite stable, the BNP is facing the threat of a split. Bhutan trudges ahead towards a land mark first election in the country. In Sri Lanka, the government forces seem to have established considerable superiority over the LTTE. The Rajpaksa government is also consolidating its political position with the principal opposition party the UNP giving up the proposal for a federal state. Much bloodshed is expected ahead as operations project into the winter monsoons. Maldives may see tightening of the security network as the country comes to grips with its first bomb blasts during September.

Myanmar remained a great area of concern for the international community as the military junta cracked down on the protestors over rise in fuel prices led by Buddhist monks. Many hundreds are said to be still under custody while 14 people died in firing by the military on the streets. The situation is relatively quiet but explosive even as the UN’s special envoy met the junta leaders. India concerned over the impact of spurning of relations with Yangon on the restive North East adopted a guarded approach. But the real crisis for New Delhi is likely to be from opposition by the Left parties to the Indo US Nuclear Deal. Two critical meetings are scheduled on 5 and 14 October where a possible compromise can be worked out else mid term elections faces the country. India’s extensive military cooperation in the form of joint training and exercises is likely to continue with an important joint committee meeting with Russia and the first ever joint training between the PLA and the Indian army. The intensity of joint military training necessitates creating centres of excellence in the country possibly at Kalaikunda, Vairangte and Goa.

There will however be no respite for the Army under a new Chief, as the militancy in Kashmir and the North East continues to splutter with uncanny irregularity. On the other hand the Naxals have extended their network and are now engaged in selective operations targeted to achieve political, economic and military aims. The challenges to security in South Asia thus will continue to grow exponentially.

SOUTH ASIA - SECURITY TRENDS

OCTOBER 2007 VOLUME 1 NO 9

SAVING YOUR LIFE - CARING FOR YOUR SECURITY

September was a month of political tsunamis for South Asia. While Pakistan faced one crisis after another, there was large scale military crackdown on monks in Myanmar (Burma to most who do not approve of the military regime) leading to an emergency visit by special representative of the UN Secretary General, Mr Ibrahim Gambari. India cruising towards the Indo US Nuclear Deal, suddenly faced prospects of mid term elections as the Left parties hardened their stance on its operationalisation. In Nepal the CPM N ministers resigned from the government and threatened to stall the elections on 22 November even as confabulations continue. Even tiny Maldives suffered a bomb blast which injured many tourists, all this as Bangladesh suffered a second round of floods and Sri Lanka continued with its military campaign against the LTTE in the north. Ironically the South Asian region topped the list of orders placed for procurement of arms by developing countries in 2006. Rightly, the International Institute of Strategic Studies London commented on the human costs of the arms ‘racing’ phenomenon in the Sub Continent. In this challenging security situation we venture to portray a few developing scenarios in Pakistan in the light of the Presidential elections and India over the UPA – Left stand off on the 123 Agreement. Very few of these promise stability, so should be a must read. We welcome your comments on the dynamics of the region.

PREVIEW OF CONTENTS

Afghanistan: Preparing for a Hot Winter

Why NATO is not winning in Afghanistan? How NATO Will Win in Afghanistan?

Bangladesh: 2008 - Year of Elections

The Restructuring Process in Bangladesh, Political Flux, Shillong – Dhaka Bus Service

Bhutan: Electoral Democracy Ushering Change

Elections as a Form of Societal Transformation, Dangers of Red Rage

China : PLA’S Manifold Capability Building

‘Give and Take’ Sino Indian Boundary Issue, PLA Buglers: Information Warriors?

Myanmar: “Metta Sutta” Revolution

Military, Monks and Cyber Age Protests, Structured Approach to Democracy

Nepal : Elections or Anarchy?

The Maoists “Next Revolt” Will it Disrupt Elections? Terai Concerns

Pakistan : A Defining Quarter Ahead

All Eye’s on Presidential Elections, Army’s Crisis of Morale and Confidence

Sri Lanka : Is the LTTE Doomed?

Operational Scene – North, Operational Scene –East, Many More Miles for Peace

India : Stability of Government and Nuclear Deal

Increased military spending in S Asia, Siachen Trekking Expedition

Indo US Civil Nuclear Deal : Scenarios Ahead

The Israel and Pakistan Factor in NSG

Joint Training – Key to Future Military Engagement

Indra 07, Varuna 07, Himalayan Warrior, Proposed Centres of Excellence

Joint Armed Forces Capability Building

Change of Baton COSC and COAS, Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System

Land Forces Capability Building

Surveillance Grid in Kashmir – High Technology for Counter Infiltration

Maritime Forces Capability Building

Freedom to Use the Seas: India’s Maritime Military Strategy, Malabar 2007

Aero Space Forces Capability Building

Ayni in Tajikistan – An Outflanking Option, India’s Air Power Focus in the East

India : Continued Terror Vulnerabilities

India’s Poor Anti Terrorism Preparedness: Rap from UN, Choking Financing.

Kashmir : State Election Strategies Falling in Place

Ramzan Cease Fire in Valley – An Idea Nipped in the Bud

The North East : India’s Security Black Hole

ULFA – Underestimated but Potent, Manipur: Perils of Ethnic Cauldron

Naxalism : Contours of A Counter Naxal Strategy

Counter Naxal Strategy, From Law and Order to Restoration of Rights

With regards,

Rahul K Bhonsle

Security-risks.com

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SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS JUNE 2007

SUMMARY OF TRENDS IN SOUTH ASIA

Afghanistan continues to be a key area of concern in South Asia. The trends and patterns of conflict increasingly mirror imaging Iraq is not very encouraging. Despite the many successes achieved by peace keepers such as killing of Mullah Dadullah, the principal protagonist in Southern Afghanistan and over 75 Taliban in Operation Silicon the intensity of suicide attacks, IEDs and disruption is spreading to new areas. There is not much hope in neighbouring Pakistan as well. The arc of instability is engulfing its Western borders with the entire belt of Southern and Eastern Afghanistan, Balochistan, the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and North West Frontier Province representing a war zone, where outside forces including the Pakistan government are increasingly targeted by a network of fighters whose supply seems unlimited and leadership resolute. Behtullah Mehsud, Jalaluddin Haqqani and Mullah Omar lack the flamboyance of Dadullah but they are elusive and have shown a high penchant for survival. The Pakistan Army would do well to regain control of the areas which it has seceded to these forces over the past two years; else the wages of escapism will come home to roost in Islamabad. The internal political situation in Pakistan is also a cause of concern. Though the steel frame, the Army continues to steady the ship, it lacks perception of how forces of modernism and democracy can raise a ground swell of dissent which can snow ball into a street side revolution that can easily spiral out of control. Either way it is a difficult situation for the ruling hierarchy.
India is going through a wave of sectarian conflict in Punjab and Rajasthan which burst into flames over issues of power, employment and politics cloaked in the garb of religious sanctity and job reservations. The power of democracy and sagacity of sane leadership will hopefully douse the flames before they conflagrate. Terrorism however is not a linear phenomenon thus Kashmir, Assam and Central India will see strikes by groups inimical to state interests be it the Hizbul Mujahideen, the ULFA or the Naxals. The threat also looms large in the many pockets of communal tension be it Mumbai or Hyderabad as domestic rebels in concert with forces from outside such as the LeT and the HUJI retain the capacity to strike testing the patience of communities. So far the strand of harmony has withstood the challenge, how long this will be maintained remains to be seen. Neighbouring Bangladesh has little political activity but reports of regrouping of terrorist outfits are a cause for alarm. Maverick unknown groups as Jadid could unleash suicide bombers from their ranks disrupting the process of restructuring undertaken by the Caretaker Administration. Indo Bangladesh relations appear to be on the upswing, which has to be translated in the DGFI giving notice to North East groups suspected of operating from the Bangla hinterland to leave or face the consequences of extermination. In Myanmar, the junta refused to release Aung Suu Kyi, the irony of real politic of a frail 61 year old woman challenging a state armed with tanks and artillery guns and supported by its neighbours to the hilt including China and India will not be lost on historians in the future.
In Bhutan, mock elections have thrown up the Druk Yellow Party of traditionalists in the fore front, with the rivals fighting an agenda of modernisation winning just a solitary seat. Nepal’s simmering polity seems to have cooled at least for the time being. Some plain talking by the Prime Minister with Maoist leadership has led to their reconciliation to the processes of democratic functioning. But Parliament remains in suspension and many splinter groups such as the JTMM, the Madhes Tigers and the YCL continue to create mayhem. Reining in these should be a priority for the government and firm action alone will bear fruit. Sri Lanka is on the verge of a full blown war as the government mulled repealing the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA) which though on paper provides at least a semblance of hope for peace. But hardening of stands on both sides has left little hope of a non violent end to the fratricidal war and bloody fighting in the North with LTTE suicide attacks in the south seems the way ahead.
Globally Iraq will continue to remain on the boil, with the American surge likely to show results only in a month or so, on the other hand political confabulations between Iran and America shows some light at the end of the tunnel. The slender thread of peace was thrown asunder in Lebanon, with the Army targeting the Fatah al-Islam which had grown terrorist roots in Palestinian refugee camps in the North. Russia flexed its missile muscle throwing a challenge to the United States entry in Eastern Europe. Ironically both America and Russia have been clubbed in the lower heap of the Global Peace Index ranked 96 and 118 respectively in a survey of 121 countries.

ORDER THE COMPLETE REVIEW OF

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS
JUNE 2007
A COMPLETE SOURCE ON SOUTH ASIAN SECURITY EVENTS AND TRENDS
EDITOR – BRIGADIER (RETD) RAHUL K BHONSLE
SECURITY-RISKS.COM. NEW DELHI

PREVIEW OF CONTENTS
International Events Impacting South Asian Security
China : The Middle Power Rises
The First Indian Perspective on Pentagon Report on China’s Armed Forces
Afghanistan: The Spring Offensive Intensifies
Unfolding the Taliban, “Kamin” strategy
Bangladesh: Political Parties and Terrorists Regroup
Regrouping of JMB and other Terror Groups
Bhutan : Tradition Beats Modernity in Mock Elections
Myanmar : Beyond Sanctions
Guns and Tanks Against A Frail Aung Suu Kyi
Nepal : The Perils of Agitation Politics
Elections in Sight in November
Pakistan: Conflagration to chaos?
Taliban in Waziristan and Lal Masjid in Islamabad. Who is in control?
Sri Lanka : Wither Cease Fire Agreement?
LTTE and the SLAF shadow box. Who will attack first?
INDIA : PERILS OF DIVISIVE POLITY
India’s Foreign and Security Policy Trajectory
A Clear Enunciation of India’s Security Policy
Land Forces Security and Capabilities
T 90 S, Arjun, 155mm Howitzers, Fire Finder Radars
Maritime Security and Capabilities
A Blue Water Navy with Scorpene in tow
Aerospace Security and Capabilities
India an Aero Space Power of the future. The trajectory ahead.
Strategic Technology and Defence Capability
Kashmir : Hopes of Peace but No Tranquillity Ahead
Infiltration Increases : Wither Demilitarization?
Surviving Communalism and Terrorism
Dausa, Bhatinda, Hyderabad, Gorakhpur – The Many Mutinies.
The North East
ULFA’s Entrenched Network of Bombs and Extortion
Naxal : Slow Burner Wars Ahead
No turning of the tide, only a small beginning for Counter Naxals.
Subscribe Indian Rs 100/- or US $ 5 per issue/ Indian Rs 1000/- or US $ 50 for whole Year. Indian Armed Forces special subscription Rs 800/- individuals & Rs 900/- units and establishments wef April issue. ONLINE JOURNAL WILL BE AVAILABLE ONLY FOR SUBSCRIBERS by 5th Each Month. Please send demand draft/cheque/cash in name of SECURITY-RISKS.COM payable Delhi to Flat No 4283, B 5&6, Vasant Kunj, New

INDIA'S INTERNAL SECURITY DYNAMICS

INDIA’S INTERNAL SECURITY DYNAMICS
BY
BRIG (RETD) RAHUL K BHONSLE
SECURITY-RISKS.COM
“Come and gather together, o my brothers, dispel your dilemma and give yourself to the task at hand”
Guru Granth Sahib
Covers in a 5000 plus word report
The North East Challenge
Nagaland
Manipur
Tripura
Assam
Bodo
Jammu and Kashmir
NAXALISM


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SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS MAY 2007

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS : MAY 2007 (Link Name)
(Material on opening of the link)

For a comprehensive coverage of events in South Asia in April 2007 and trends in May 2007 to include the following main issues:-

International Events Impacting South Asian Security
China - Plus 11 % Surging Ahead Relentlessly
14th SAARC Summit : Two Steps Forward
Afghanistan : Spring Offensive Underway
Bangladesh : Minus Two Politics Backfires?
Bhutan : Rehearsing Democracy
Nepal : Agitation Politics Continues
Pakistan : In the Grip of a Thousand Mutinies
Sri Lanka : Terror from the Air
India – Makings of a Regional Power
Indian Foreign Policy Initiatives and Dialogues
The 123 Agreement and Look East Policy
Indian Strategic Defence Capability
Agni III, PSLV and Anti Missile Tests
Indian Army News and Land Forces Acquisitions
Ex Ashwamedh, Network Centric Warfare and Commanders Conference
Indian Navy News and Maritime Acquisitions
Naval Diplomacy, TSN and 40 new ships in the offing
Indian Air Force News and Aero Space Acquisitions
126 Combat fighters RFP and the LCA
Kashmir Towards a Hot and Cold Summer
Outsourced Terrorism, Safe Passage and Demilitarization
Terrorism, Communalism and Law and Order
Terrorists in New Delhi and Osama CDs in Bihar
The North East : Flip Flop over ULFA
Army suppresses ULFA as State government talks peace
Naxal : Reopen Front in Bihar
Increased activities in Bihar and perils of policing in Chattisgarh

PLUS OVERVIEW OF TERRORISM IN SOUTH ASIA 2006


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SCENARIOS IN BANGLADESH

A discussion of Scenarios in Bangladesh – From stability to status quo to chaos. A discussion of the political and other measures which can contribute to peace and stability? Is stability a viable proposition? What are the recommendations for the Bangla Government, international community and India to contribute to this scenario?
A Power Point Presentation by Rahul K Bhonsle – South Asia’s foremost expert on strategic risk.http://www.security-risks.com/bangla_scenario.asp
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Operational Art In Low Internsity Conflict Operations

The relevance and applicability of Operational Art in the Low Intensity Conflict Scenario – Indian Context. Includes salient examples of application. Answers the very critical question of applicability of operational art in low intensity conflict operations. http://www.security-risks.com/operation_art.asp
A Power Point Presentation by Rahul K Bhonsle – South Asia’s foremost expert on low intensity conflict.Order at $ 25 or Rs 1000/-. Send E Mail. orders@security-risks.com.

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS APRIL 2007

The month of April was a period of reconciliation with South Asian leadership congregating for the 14th SAARC Summit in New Delhi. SAARC compared to other regional groupings as the European Union (EU) or ASEAN which have stabilized is only now showing signs of greater harmony. SAFTA will be the main driver as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are already benefiting from opening up trade with India. Afghanistan saw resurgence of violence as the Taliban spring offensive is underway. NATO forces have pre-empted the Taliban in many sectors, but the guerrilla fighters will continue to foray in varied areas posing challenges, relying on a combination of kidnapping, suicide attacks and guerrilla strikes particularly on Afghan police and army personnel to undermine their morale and force hands of vacillating government’s to leave the country. Some improvement in Pakistan – Afghanistan relations is anticipated with Turkey brokering a declaration in Ankara at the end of the month. In Pakistan the threat of militancy and suicide terrorism came to the fore with a rally addressed by the Interior Minister struck by a suicide bomber in the NWFP killing over 30 people. Agitations of two hues were evident in the country. On one hand was the liberal lobby of lawyers and civil rights activists who protested sacking of Chief Justice of the country, while rabid fundamentalists of Lal Masjid in Islamabad took to the streets to impose strict code of conduct.
Nepal was caught in a welter of bandhs and agitations with the Maoists wanting immediate declaration of the state as a republic, while other groups such as the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum called for greater autonomy, federalism and equal representation. The Government has successfully handled the crisis so far and is expected to prevail. In Bangladesh, the Caretaker Administration’s Minus Two politics exemplifying exile of two former Prime Minister’s, Begum Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina seems to have back fired, with supporters of the leaders succeeding to force the government to repeal its obliquely worded orders exiling the leaders. A fringe group struck in three places in the country, Dacca, Chittagong and Sylhet with low intensity bombs on 1 May, which caused little damage. Hectic political and administrative confabulations are going on in the country, as the Caretaker Administration is burdened with the challenge of restructuring governance as well as polity. In Sri Lanka the LTTE sprung a surprise launching two air attacks in Jaffna and Colombo during the month. The last one was timed with the finals of the cricket world cup wherein Sri Lanka were playing Australia. Shutting off power due to the air raid, was expected to create panic but the stolid citizens of Colombo are probably inured to such incidents by now.
India saw successful test of the IRBM, Agni III followed by commercial launch of satellite by the ISRO which made up for past failures. The Indo US Nuclear Deal seems to be stuck in a groove with both sides attempting to iron out differences. The Sino Indian border talks also failed to enthuse the negotiators despite the salubrious environs of Coonor. In Kashmir, demilitarization was the buzz, but the reality of terrorist violence has cooled enthusiasm at present. On the other hand a large number of youth on both sides of the LOC are perhaps awaiting a promised safe passage. Assam saw the ULFA on the defensive with supply lines having choked off from Myanmar, the group is under pressure. The State government played flip flop proposing talks just when the army was set to break the back of the militants. The Naxals continued their periodic rampage in Chattisgarh as the state is undergoing an acute crisis of efficient policing. Revival of the movement in Bihar is also evident.

In the international arena, Iraq continued to conflagrate along with Somalia in the Horn of Africa, while an Al Qaeda affiliate launched a terrorist attack on HQs of the prime minister of Algeria in North Africa. In Darfur, Sudan there are hopes of peace while the need for stability is leading the Pentagon to lay out plans for an Africa Command. The US State Department report on terrorism for 2006 denoted a rise in both the number of incidents as well as casualties across the globe, a reminder that there is a long haul ahead. The Al Qaeda apparently is not only surviving but also extending influence in newer parts of the World including North Africa.

The summer season in the Northern Hemisphere is regarded as ideal for military campaigns. The summer of 2007 does not portend to be any different as security forces are likely to remain preoccupied to keep peace and amity across much of the developing World and particularly in South Asia.
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SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS MARCH 2007

The ides of March crossed many areas of South Asia during the month under review. Sri Lanka continued to be marred by fratricidal violence as Government forces wage a relentless war of attrition in the East while the LTTE has returned with vengeance unveiling a new weapon in its armoury, an Air Wing. Peace is many months away as over 150,000 people are rendered homeless in Eastern Sri Lanka and the fate of millions hangs in balance as the campaign progresses northwards. A fresh, ear to the ground perspective is provided by Col (Retd) R Hariharan writing on trends in the Island. The emergency clamp down in Bangladesh was extended to bring over 160 political and other prominent personalities to book, including Mr Tarique Rehman, son of former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia. The hanging of terrorists accused of the 2005 blasts including Bangla Bhai should send a clear signal of resolve of the Caretaker Administration to inimical elements in the state. Indo Bangla relations are already looking up. The possible scenarios in Bangladesh have been covered in detail in this issue.

After much political brinkmanship, the grand old man of Nepal, Mr G P Koirala took oath as Prime Minister as the Interim Government took office with six ministers from the Maoist fold in tow. There is much work cut out ahead as elections have been scheduled in June, merely three months away, as the Madhesi agitation rocks the Terai and economy moves in jerks, the perils of power should be soon evident to the new government. Bhutan also moved towards democracy after two political parties were formed and a new Indo Bhutan treaty meeting Thimpu's aspirations came into effect.

Pakistan remained on the brinks of militancy as well as political crisis throughout the month. Removal of Chief Justice of the Supreme Court on charges of corruption and nepotism led to an uproar in the judiciary as well as the media. The ham handed approach of the state in dealing with the crisis saw police charging into offices of Geo TV, Pakistan’s symbol of media freedom. A major confrontation was avoided by personal apology by President Musharraf and some deft political manoeuvring as the Government rode out the crisis. The Western FATA area witnessed a major clash between Uzbek militias linked to Al Qaeda and tribal fighters in South Waziristan as the government once again made a peace deal with the tribal in Bajaur agency. Pakistan’s strategy of alternating between peace and controlled operations receives extensive coverage in this issue. Afghanistan on the other hand was relatively calm due to a combination of factors of intense operations by NATO forces, Taliban’s preoccupation in FATA and the lucrative poppy season. Suicide terror, kidnapping and extortion are however assuming alarming proportions.

India too saw a spurt of violence in Naxal affected states of Chattisgarh and Jharkhand as a key Member of Parliament was shot dead by the Maoists and over 55 policemen killed in a midnight attack by a large group of militants in Rani Bodli. Bihar too saw return of the Maoists after a long time, denoting unfolding of the Maoist strategy outlined in the 9th Congress. In the North East, the ULFA continued its battle for political and military relevance in Assam. The NSCN factions were involved in internecine clashes while Manipur settled down after a hectic period of electioneering. The DRDO came for special scrutiny during the month and a detailed review has been undertaken while India’s defence preparedness in other spheres continues apace. The SAARC summit in New Delhi will be in focus on 3 and 4 April with terrorism forming a key part of the agenda

China’s Prime Minister denoted a new vision extending over 100 years while extensive plans for development of strategic technologies and new confidence in the PLA Navy indicated the mood of the nation. The United States continued to suffer from the high wages of conflict in Iraq as surge operations have yet to demonstrate results while Congress is pressuring the Administration to fix a withdrawal date in 2008. Britain felt the heat of stand off with Iran as 15 sailors were apprehended by the Revolutionary Guard in disputed waters of the Shaat el Arab. Somalia saw return to guerrilla warfare even as African Union troops were being deployed to take control from Ethiopian forces. Japan inked a new agreement of security cooperation with Australia as both nations looked beyond bitter memories of the Second World War. Much needs to be done in April, to make the World and particularly South Asia a safer place.
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South Asia Security Trends February 2007

Security in South Asia was in focus during February 2007. The anticipated spring offensive of the Taliban in Afghanistan seems to have virtually commenced with three district centres secured by the rebels during the month. These appear to be opening moves in what is expected to be a bloody summer. Neighbouring Pakistan which many consider to be the key to control Taliban saw three suicide bomb attacks one of which in a court room in Quetta killed 17 including a sitting judge. There was no respite to President Musharraf as Western accusations of support to Taliban were followed up by visits of US Vice President Dick Cheney and the British foreign secretary Margaret Beckett seeking greater Pakistani indulgence in controlling the Taliban. Islamabad’s predicament can be best explained by the phrase, “between the devil and the deep sea”. Terror also threatened to mar Indo Pakistan dialogue with a bomb attack on the Samjhauta Express which connects the two countries killing 68 persons mostly Pakistanis. Good sense prevailed and Indo Pakistani authorities concluded the all important visit of foreign minister Kasuri to New Delhi reaffirming their commitment to peace.

This was a good sign for Kashmir, where political realignment sees the moderate faction of Hurriyat Conference increasingly gaining prominence. Indo Bhutan relations received a new fillip with inking of new Friendship Treaty providing greater latitude to Thimpu in conducting foreign relations. Bangladesh saw a crack down on key functionaries of political parties on charges of corruption and anti social activities as the Caretaker government prepared to place order before democratic rights and sought to clean up polity. Elections appear to be postponed indefinitely. Indo Bangla relations improved considerably with Indian company Bharat Heavy Electrical Ltd awarded key power contract by Dacca after a long time. Myanmar concluded a pact with a faction of the Kachin rebels while the NSCN (Khaplang) camp at Sagaing was raided by the Myanmarese Army during the month. Sri Lanka saw political turbulence as three members of parliament challenged the authority of the President after redistribution of portfolios to dissidents from the opposition. The Cease Fire Agreement is now in a jeopardy with both LTTE and the Sri Lankan government virtually withdrawing their commitment after 5 years of chequered history.

Within India, elections to three states of Punjab, Uttarakhand and Manipur saw a shift in power from the ruling Congress Party to the opposition in two states less Manipur, while announcement of elections to the largest state, Uttar Pradesh in April and May increased the political tempo considerably. The terror attack on Samjhauta Express was a grim reminder of continued vulnerability of the country’s transportation network. Measures for coastal security were also enhanced with an LTTE boat laden with explosives impounded in Indian waters in the Palk straits. Naxal continued their IED operations in Chattisgarh. A strategy session of the high command is said to have been held during the month indicating extension of the struggle to other areas of the country. Elections in Manipur were peaceful but for a strike on a police patrol killing 15 in a deliberate ambush by the militants.

The international focus was on North Korea which finally agreed to wind up the nuclear weapons program after successful six nation talks. Iran however remained recalcitrant. The US demonstrated greater flexibility by accepting a role for Iran and Syria in resolution of the Iraq imbroglio. The situation in Iraq showed signs of marginal improvement due to renewed drive by American and Iraqi forces. Sustained pressure for over three to six months alone will show perceptible results as some reports indicated use of chlorine gas by Iraqi insurgents. Iran suffered a major terrorist attack by Sunni terrorist group, Jumdullah on the Western township of Zahedan, resulting in 17 casualties. The insurgency in southern Thailand showed an upsurge with serial attacks rocking over 45 places during the month, a grim cue to the leadership now comprising mostly of former and serving military brass.

The month of March presages more violence in Afghanistan, Iraq and other parts where militancy is proliferating including in Sri Lanka. The looming clouds of US strikes on Iran however seem to have receded giving some hope for peace.
For a complete review of the Security Trends in South Asia for all months so far, please go to www.security-risks.com