Outline Trends South Asia - March

Afghanistan

· Opening moves of spring offensive in Eastern and Southern Afghanistan with increase in suicide attacks, road side IEDs, and bombs by Taliban and pre-emptive surge by ISAF anticipated. Poppy cultivation will commence in South Afghanistan

Bangladesh

· Emergency likely to be relaxed with elections due in four corporations and eight municipalities.

Bhutan

· Heavy campaigning for National Assembly elections, with stray bomb attacks anticipated. Strikes will not disrupt elections.

China

· Olympics surge will commence with preparations gathering momentum.

Maldives

· Political tempo will increase with campaigning likely to commence at low key.

Myanmar

· SPDC government will maintain strict control over democratic activity, first stage of preparations for referendum on Constitution will commence.

Nepal

· Election campaigning will gather momentum, Violence in Terai expected. Stray cases of bomb attacks to disrupt elections.

Pakistan

· Government formation process to gather momentum.

· Hectic political lobbying anticipated, with heavy pressure on President Musharraf to leave, however will have marginal impact as he is likely to continue in power.

· Attacks by terrorists across the board including raids on army posts and suicide strikes will increase.

· Army operations in NWFP, North and South Waziristan expected.

Sri Lanka :

· Heavy fighting in Northern Sri Lanka with suicide, bomb and claymore strikes by LTTE in the South and East will continue.

· Local elections in Batticaloa may experience some violence.

· Political initiative by the Government likely.

India

· Continued high alert due to attempts by terrorists to conduct a major strike in the hinterland.

Kashmir

· Militancy flow will reduce considerably, political parties will manoeuvre for elections

North East

· Government formation in Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland

· Assam and Manipur will remain distressed with continued terrorist activity including extortion and kidnapping.

· Karbi Anglong and North Cachar may encounter targeted killing of Hindi speaking and project personnel.

Naxal

· Chattisgarh, Bihar and Jharkhand will experience continued encounters with Naxals. Police resistance may increase and see fierce fighting.

· Stray attacks in Orissa and low level activity in Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal anticipated.

Contact rkbhonsle@gmail.com for detailed risk analysis of any country or state in South Asia. Very useful for travel, corporate investments, security analysts and business leaders for personal and corporate issues.

SCENARIOS IN PAKISTAN

SOUTH ASIA’s FIRST AND ONLY DEFENCE FOCUSED DAILY AND WEEKLY NEWS COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS

TWO PREMIUM NEWS PRODUCTS

DAILY - SAST DAILY NSCAN

NEWS, COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE

WEEKKLY - SOUTH ASIA WEEKLY SECURITY TRENDS (SAWST)

Editor and Copyright – Brig (Retd) Rahul K Bhonsle

Dear Sir,

To provide your detailed survey and analysis of the security trends in South Asia we have introduced to premium news products. A Daily News, Comments and Analysis Service – Daily NSCAN provides you with detailed coverage and analysis on security related news in South Asia to cover all countries from Afghanistan to Myanmar. Our instant response to crisis situations will be indicated by the Possible Scenarios in Pakistan (Initial Estimate) within 12 hours of the unfortunate assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Have a Look

Security – Risks.com Scenarios in Pakistan

Scenario 1. – Chaos Initially Followed by Low Level Civil War. There is likely to be chaotic situation over the next week to 14 days. Supporters of the Benazir Bhutto and the PPP are likely to be on a rampage. Control of clashes will become increasingly difficult as the entire region of Sindh and parts of Balochistan and Punjab will be on the boil. However it is anticipated that the situation will be controlled over the next two weeks. Thereafter it would depend on emergence of political consensus in the leadership. If there is continuing divide between Sharif, other political leaders and Musharraf, the chaos will continue. On the other hand serious clashes between the supporters of PPP mainly from Sindh and the pashtuns who are suspected to be behind the attack may lead to a divide in the country again contributing to possible low level civil war which will manifest into Al Qaeda types of attacks and civil unrest as witnessed in Iraq. Probability. Chaos possible over Next 14 to 30 days but situation may be under control thereafter. However beyond that possibility of low level civil war is Limited as it is anticipated that civil society and the army should be able to restore order. A lot depends on the Army Chief General Kiyani as much as Nawaz Sharif and other opposition leaders.

Scenario 2 – Elections Held after 30 Days, Elected Government Assumes Office. This is an ideal scenario for Pakistan as it would bring an elected government in office which alone can bring different elements of society together to wage the war against militancy and terrorism which is wracking the country with increased intensity. The Army and the police should be able to restore order over the next few days and bring the political parties together in an united front to bring an elected civil government to rule the country. For this statesmanship within the political class is essential. Probability. Possible. Role of General Kiyani will again be important, pressure from Saudi Arabia and the USA will be essential. International community also needs to play a proactive role.

Scenario 3 – Emergency, Indefinite Postponement of elections. This is one scenario which is also possible given the nature of chaos in the first two weeks. The Government will undertake this in case there is continued law and order problem in the country including number of suicide attacks and fratricidal conflict. This will see more uncertainty and will be detrimental to internal stability in Pakistan in the long term. Probability. Will depend on the chaotic situation. In case there is continued chaos, this may be possible, however there will be great resistance from the international community and civil society in Pakistan. This will result in continued instability in the country.

Scenario 4 – Continue to Hold Elections as Scheduled. Probability – Limited. With withdrawal of Sharif from the election process there is limited likelihood of this happening as the elections will lose their credibility and will not be seen as free and fair. This may also lead to continued political instability in Pakistan.

Security-Risks.com – Who has Done It?

There are three possibilities as follows:-

· Priority 1 – Al Qaeda – Most probable, given sophistication of the attack, however TTP assistance would have been taken. Al Qaeda would have been most seriously affected if she came to power. Is long time sworn enemy of Benazir, US also harmed.

· Priority 2 – TTP – Behtullah Mehsud group. Likely to have assisted the Al Qaeda. Is long time sworn enemy of Benazir but lacks capability for a sophisticated attack.

· Priority 3 – ISI. ISI or Elements within the Establishment including the opposing parties. Unlikely though assistance provided to the Al Qaeda tacitly cannot be ruled out.

A E Mail covering all these issues will be send to you by 1000h each day. The service is available at nominal cost of $ 150/- per month. In case you want to focus on only one or more countries, the same is available at $ 35/- per country. A sample giving NSCAN for 27 December is attached. So if you liked the sample, please reply post haste or ring up 09899692368, 09818272740.

Thanking You,

Yours Sincerely,

South Asia Security Daily News Comments Analysis

SAVING YOUR LIFE

CARING FOR YOUR SECURITY

INDIA’S FIRST DEFENCE FOCUSED DAILY NEWS COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS : DAILY NEWS, COMMENTS AND ANALYSIS SERVICE

SAST DAILY NSCAN

Editor and Copyright – Brig (Retd) Rahul K Bhonsle

Dear Sir,

Beating the information overload is very difficult each day. However here is a daily news service which packages information for you each day from a large number of sources across south asia and provides comments and analysis. For instance 25 October 2007 package of South Asia includes analysis of following key trends –

· Taliban ambush Afghan army personnel, eight dead, 10 Taliban killed in Zabul.

· NATO defence ministers mull greater commitment in Afghanistan.

· Britain Promises More Support, but political pressure may not permit greater commitment in Afghanistan.

· ACC finds no graft charge against Khaleda in Magurchhara Gas Case in Bangladesh.

· Yala raids reveal involvement of organized groups in drug induction in Dacca.

· Border conference agrees on exchange of info on terrorists, however no movement on Kolkata – Dacca railway initiative restricts impetus to Indo Bangladesh relations.

· Suu Kyi Meets Junta’s Official nominated for negotiations in Myanmar.

· Strategic Comments – Myanmar’s Transformative Movement, Providing detailed perception by experts on the way ahead in Yangon.

· Fuel price hike sparks protests in Nepal, Government attempts to play down the impact. Will this become another Myanmar?

· King plans to visit Durga temple in Bhaktapur in Nepal, rising ambitions of monarchy worries the Maoists.

· 18 troops dead in Swat blast, 30 total losses stated. Full scale military operations appear the only solution in the mountainous NWFP area in Pakistan.

· Mehsud tribal seek withdrawal of army from the area, provide concrete proposals for implementation.

· SLN killed in Tiger ambush in Hambantota claims TamilNet, confirmation awaited.

· LTTE can form political party, but not likely to accept this offer.

· Expanding India – US Military Ties despite opposition from the Left is the way ahead.

· Defence Minister’s Address to Naval Commanders Conference in New Delhi seeks project completion and greater technology and human resources management.

· A Blue Print for India’s Aero Space Industry by Air Chief provides for technology integration and seeks more funding over the next five decades.

· Tejas LCA fires the first test Close Combat Missile.

· SAARC Home Ministers Meet calls for greater cooperation, measures on ground however remain limited

· Projects in trouble spots will be hampered as per POSCO’s experience in Orissa. Effective strategy in local socio-political management is the way ahead.

· SEBI denies terror funds in Stock Markets.

· Syed Salahuddin says militancy will continue in Kashmir as Defence Minister visits the state on 27 October and violence Levels in Kashmir are coming down

· Pak trade delegation's visit to Kashmir being rescheduled due to Diwali.

· People may have to be armed against Naxals in Karnataka, an assessment.

· 12 more Ulfa to surrender in Assam.

· 6 killed in factional war between NSCN IM and K factions in Nagaland.

So If you want a dedicated source of news each day please do subscribe this service which will ensure that the news and analysis reaches you each day by 1000h (IST) sharp, to enable you to take critical decisions, be it on politics,. Security, defence or travel advise. A sample bulletin for 25 October is attached for information.

The service is available at nominal cost of $ 150/- per month. In case you want to focus on only one or more countries, the same is available at $ 35/- per country. So if you liked the sample, please reply post haste or ring up 09899692368, 09818272740.

Regards and best wishes,

Yours Sincerely,

Security Workshops Round Tables Lecturers South Asia

1. Some Workshop, Round Tables and Lectures Conducted include the following:-

• National Security Workshop – Conducted for selected Defence Attaches and Advisors – 18 and 19 January 2007.
• India Security : The New Great Game. Lecture in the USI of India – 31 May 2006.
• Information Dynamics in Low Intensity Conflict Environment – Lecture to Advanced Media Communication Course for Selected Officers of Armed Forces at Indian Institute of Mass Communication. – 18 September 2006.
• Terrorism and Counter Terrorism. Vertical Interaction Course for IPS Officers. USI of India. 04 December 2006.
• Intelligence the Key to Counter Insurgency. Vertical Interaction Course for IPS Officers. USI of India. 06 December 2006.
• Afghanistan: Scenario Status Quo and Stability. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 15 February 2007.
• Capacity Building for Out of Area Intervention Capabilities. IDSA. New Delhi. 21 March 2007.
• Evolution of Armed Forces and Military Doctrine. Indian Foreign Service Probationers Capsule. IDSA. New Delhi. 13 March 2007.
• Indo Nepal Relations. BSF Academy Gwalior. Tekanpur. India. 20 March 2007.
• Bangladesh: Restructuring a Nation. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 26 March 2007.
• India’s Internal Security: Problems and Prospects. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 26 March 2007.
• Operational Art in the LICO Environment. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 28 March 2007.
• India’s Defence Budget: Analysis and Opportunities. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 28 March 2007.
• South Asia Survey of Nuclear and Missile Profile. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 18 April 2007.
• WMD Terrorism: A Global Threat Survey. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 18 April 2007.
• Survey of Terrorist Groups in South Asia. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 20 April 2007.
• Iraq : The State of Militancy and Terrorism. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 20 April 2007.
• Countering Low Intensity Conflicts: Changing Perspective and Reassessment – Centre for Land Warfare Studies. New Delhi. 23 March 2006.
• Power Projection Capability: Assessment, Likely Challenges and Suggested Structures. “Threats and Challenges Warranting Employment of Military Force. Centre for Land Warfare Studies. New Delhi. 05 July 2006.
• Environmental Factors in Planning and Conduct of Military Operations. Discussant. Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis. New Delhi. 19 July 2006.
• Command Orientation Vs Specialisation : Need for Balance. Suggestions for Making Specialisation an Attractive Proposition. Centre for Land Warfare Studies. New Delhi 20 September 2006.
• Cost Effective Logistics Management. Logistics Management Practices : Op Enduring Freedom and OP Iraqi Freedom. Centre for Air Power Studies. New Delhi
• Planning for Air Power Application in Limited Wars. Centre for Air Power Studies. New Delhi. 4 October 2006.
• Military Joint ness – Implementation Strategy. College of Defence Management, Secunderabad. 24 November 2006.
• War on Terror and its Impact on Pakistan’s Policy. Discussant. Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis. New Delhi. 20 December 2006.
• Military Determinants of Southeast Asian Security. Workshop on "Security Dynamics in Southeast Asia" 8 February 2007. 9^th Asian Security Conference. IDSA. New Delhi.
• Legal Framework and Human Rights. Paper presented in Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) Seminar on Counter Terrorism on 27 May 2007.
• Naxalism in India : An Overview and Possible Trajectory for Resolution. Security-Risks.Com New Delhi. 21 August 2007.
• Militancy and Counter Militancy in Jammu and Kashmir – Background and General Survey. . Security-Risks.Com New Delhi. 22 August 2007.
• Indo Pakistan Relations – Importance on Stability in South Asia. Security-Risks.Com New Delhi. 18 September 2007.
• Draft Indo US 123 Agreements. Security-Risks.Com New Delhi. 18 September 2007.
• Sino Indian Relations - A Review. Security-Risks.Com. New Delhi. 19 September 2007.
• Regional Security in South Asia. Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses. New Delhi. 20 August 2007.
• Terrorism and Counter Terrorism. Vertical Interaction Course for IPS Officers. USI of India. 23 August 2007.
• Intelligence the Key to Counter Insurgency. Vertical Interaction Course for IPS Officers. USI of India. 24 August 2007.
• Please order online copies of any of these to rkbhonsle@security-risks.com or at rkbhonsle@gmail.com. send demand draft/cheque/cash in name of SECURITY-RISKS.COM payable Delhi to Flat No 4283, B 5&6, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110070.

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY RESEARCH REPORTS

Security-risks.com is regularly publishing research reports on securty in south asia. Some of our recent reports are as below:-

1. Research Reports, Security Alerts, Presentations and News Syndication. Some Recent Research Reports published in last three months:-

a. Afghanistan National Army - A Review. Available soft copy only for public issue. Price Rs 1000/-
b. Hizb ut Tahrir. Not Available.
c. Tableeghi Jamaat. Not Available.
d. Al Qaeda in India. Not Available.
e. Nature of Future Wars. Not Available.
f. Lashkar e Taiyyaba. Not Available.
g. Hizbul Mujahideen. Not Available.
h. Lashkar e Jhangvi. Not Available.
i. Peace Mission 2007 and SCO Summit. Available for soft copy only for Public Issue. Price Rs 600/-
j. India’s Defence Strategy and Acquisition Programme. Will Be Available by Mid Oct.

Please order online rkbhonsle@security-risks.com or at rkbhonsle@gmail.com. send demand draft/cheque/cash in name of SECURITY-RISKS.COM payable Delhi to Flat No 4283, B 5&6, Vasant Kunj, New Delhi 110070.

SOUTH ASIA SECURITY TRENDS OCTOBER 2007

OCTOBER - SECURITY TRENDS IN SOUTH ASIA

October will be an eventful month in South Asia. Hopefully there should be greater stability than in September, though at present portends are quite grim. Nepal will see hectic negotiations in the beginning of the month as political parties attempt to break the impasse created by Maoists threat to pull out of the election process in case their 22 point demands are not met. Proportional representation will remain the sticky point and there are hopes of a compromise as the CPN M jockeys to gain advantage facing prospects of declining seats in a direct voting system. The fist week of October will also see a crucial election, that for the post of the President in Pakistan. While there are five candidates every body is expecting the present incumbent General Musharraf to win. However the victory will not be without blemishes, as the opposition parties have resigned en masse from the National and provincial assemblies and the NWFP legislature has been dissolved. Going by past trends these are not likely to raise qualms for the General fully backed by a selected coterie of the PML Q or the King’s party and the army top leadership which has been recently revamped.

Meanwhile the principal protagonist, Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People’s Party is set to return to the country on 18 October. She may be reinforced by an amnesty through an ordinance by the government covering a wide period from 1985 to 2007. But this may also be linked with her support to re-election of Musharraf as President, which is really a Hobson’s choice for in such an eventuality her popularity in Pakistan will plummet. Afghanistan appeared politically more stable as compared to Islamabad, though the militancy appears to be getting worse. The Taliban have spread their influence in almost 50 percent of the Southern region of Helmand, Kandahar and Uruzgan and are also dominating in Ghazni and the East. NATO forces have been hampered by the proverbial paucity of troops, thus in many cases areas secured earlier were lost to the rebels as posts weakly held by Afghan National Army or the Police (ANA/ANP) were retaken by the Taliban. This situation is likely to continue in the days ahead.

Of greater concern is the increase in the number of suicide attacks by the Taliban. Two recent attacks in Kabul have already caused over 40 deaths including 30 ANA personnel. This may seriously jeopardise the efforts of the Government to re-establish control in the country side with diversion of greater number of troops to the capital. Securing vulnerable areas and rehearsing counter suicide attack drills can achieve better results. Meanwhile, President Karzai duly fortified by extension of the UN mandate by a year offered peace talks to the Taliban which was rejected as expected till, “foreign’ troops are in the country. The only saving grace is an increase in commitment by countries as Germany, France and the Netherlands.

In Bangladesh the Election Commission has declared 2008 as the Year of elections and is proceeding with the proposed schedule while also pressurising the Caretaker Administration for greater political freedoms. The two principal political parties, the Awami League and the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) are in disarray with the leaders, Khaleda and Hasina fighting a series of legal battles against corruption. While the Awami League appears quite stable, the BNP is facing the threat of a split. Bhutan trudges ahead towards a land mark first election in the country. In Sri Lanka, the government forces seem to have established considerable superiority over the LTTE. The Rajpaksa government is also consolidating its political position with the principal opposition party the UNP giving up the proposal for a federal state. Much bloodshed is expected ahead as operations project into the winter monsoons. Maldives may see tightening of the security network as the country comes to grips with its first bomb blasts during September.

Myanmar remained a great area of concern for the international community as the military junta cracked down on the protestors over rise in fuel prices led by Buddhist monks. Many hundreds are said to be still under custody while 14 people died in firing by the military on the streets. The situation is relatively quiet but explosive even as the UN’s special envoy met the junta leaders. India concerned over the impact of spurning of relations with Yangon on the restive North East adopted a guarded approach. But the real crisis for New Delhi is likely to be from opposition by the Left parties to the Indo US Nuclear Deal. Two critical meetings are scheduled on 5 and 14 October where a possible compromise can be worked out else mid term elections faces the country. India’s extensive military cooperation in the form of joint training and exercises is likely to continue with an important joint committee meeting with Russia and the first ever joint training between the PLA and the Indian army. The intensity of joint military training necessitates creating centres of excellence in the country possibly at Kalaikunda, Vairangte and Goa.

There will however be no respite for the Army under a new Chief, as the militancy in Kashmir and the North East continues to splutter with uncanny irregularity. On the other hand the Naxals have extended their network and are now engaged in selective operations targeted to achieve political, economic and military aims. The challenges to security in South Asia thus will continue to grow exponentially.

SOUTH ASIA - SECURITY TRENDS

OCTOBER 2007 VOLUME 1 NO 9

SAVING YOUR LIFE - CARING FOR YOUR SECURITY

September was a month of political tsunamis for South Asia. While Pakistan faced one crisis after another, there was large scale military crackdown on monks in Myanmar (Burma to most who do not approve of the military regime) leading to an emergency visit by special representative of the UN Secretary General, Mr Ibrahim Gambari. India cruising towards the Indo US Nuclear Deal, suddenly faced prospects of mid term elections as the Left parties hardened their stance on its operationalisation. In Nepal the CPM N ministers resigned from the government and threatened to stall the elections on 22 November even as confabulations continue. Even tiny Maldives suffered a bomb blast which injured many tourists, all this as Bangladesh suffered a second round of floods and Sri Lanka continued with its military campaign against the LTTE in the north. Ironically the South Asian region topped the list of orders placed for procurement of arms by developing countries in 2006. Rightly, the International Institute of Strategic Studies London commented on the human costs of the arms ‘racing’ phenomenon in the Sub Continent. In this challenging security situation we venture to portray a few developing scenarios in Pakistan in the light of the Presidential elections and India over the UPA – Left stand off on the 123 Agreement. Very few of these promise stability, so should be a must read. We welcome your comments on the dynamics of the region.

PREVIEW OF CONTENTS

Afghanistan: Preparing for a Hot Winter

Why NATO is not winning in Afghanistan? How NATO Will Win in Afghanistan?

Bangladesh: 2008 - Year of Elections

The Restructuring Process in Bangladesh, Political Flux, Shillong – Dhaka Bus Service

Bhutan: Electoral Democracy Ushering Change

Elections as a Form of Societal Transformation, Dangers of Red Rage

China : PLA’S Manifold Capability Building

‘Give and Take’ Sino Indian Boundary Issue, PLA Buglers: Information Warriors?

Myanmar: “Metta Sutta” Revolution

Military, Monks and Cyber Age Protests, Structured Approach to Democracy

Nepal : Elections or Anarchy?

The Maoists “Next Revolt” Will it Disrupt Elections? Terai Concerns

Pakistan : A Defining Quarter Ahead

All Eye’s on Presidential Elections, Army’s Crisis of Morale and Confidence

Sri Lanka : Is the LTTE Doomed?

Operational Scene – North, Operational Scene –East, Many More Miles for Peace

India : Stability of Government and Nuclear Deal

Increased military spending in S Asia, Siachen Trekking Expedition

Indo US Civil Nuclear Deal : Scenarios Ahead

The Israel and Pakistan Factor in NSG

Joint Training – Key to Future Military Engagement

Indra 07, Varuna 07, Himalayan Warrior, Proposed Centres of Excellence

Joint Armed Forces Capability Building

Change of Baton COSC and COAS, Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System

Land Forces Capability Building

Surveillance Grid in Kashmir – High Technology for Counter Infiltration

Maritime Forces Capability Building

Freedom to Use the Seas: India’s Maritime Military Strategy, Malabar 2007

Aero Space Forces Capability Building

Ayni in Tajikistan – An Outflanking Option, India’s Air Power Focus in the East

India : Continued Terror Vulnerabilities

India’s Poor Anti Terrorism Preparedness: Rap from UN, Choking Financing.

Kashmir : State Election Strategies Falling in Place

Ramzan Cease Fire in Valley – An Idea Nipped in the Bud

The North East : India’s Security Black Hole

ULFA – Underestimated but Potent, Manipur: Perils of Ethnic Cauldron

Naxalism : Contours of A Counter Naxal Strategy

Counter Naxal Strategy, From Law and Order to Restoration of Rights

With regards,

Rahul K Bhonsle

Security-risks.com

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